CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures started the week lower as weekend rains and a moderating forecast prompted the removal of some weather premium priced in last week. A poor export inspection report also added pressure, raising concerns about weakening demand.
• Weather forecasts eased to start the week, with expectations for less intense and shorter-duration heat. Improved rainfall projections for late July also weighed on futures, softening concerns about prolonged stress on the crop.
• Weekly corn export inspections came in below expectations, with U.S. exporters shipping just 984,000 metric tons (38.7 million bushels). While total exports remain 29% above last year, the weak showing followed an already disappointing sales report, fueling worries about demand erosion amid Brazil’s record harvest.
• Brazil analyst firm, Agrural raised their corn production output for the 2024-25 season to 136.3 MMT, up from 130.6 in their last projection. Favorable weather for the key second crop Brazil corn has supported this production raise.
• The U.S. dollar broke lower from recent consolidation, potentially signaling a return to a weaker trend. A softer dollar would generally provide support for U.S. corn and grain exports by improving global competitiveness.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower in bear spreading actions with the front months taking the brunt of losses. Forecasts over the weekend shifted to show more precipitation and a bit less heat from previous forecasts, which pressured the entire grain market today. Soybean meal was lower while soybean oil moved higher again.
• Today’s export inspections report was on the soft side for soybeans with inspections totaling 13.5 million bushels for the week ending July 17. This was within trade expectations and was above last weeks. Total inspections for 24/25 are up 10% from last year.
• In China, soybean imports from Brazil have reportedly risen by 9.2% from the previous year. This was driven by a strong Brazilian harvest along with the ongoing US trade war. Last month, China imported 86.6% of their total imports from Brazil alone.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 26,062 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 32,278 contracts. They bought 5,480 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 43,221 contracts and sold 1,537 contracts of meal leaving them short 133,016 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed lower across all three U.S. classes, despite early strength. Losses followed weakness in corn, soybeans, and Paris (Matif) wheat. Weekend rains in the Northern Plains boosted spring wheat prospects, while uncertainty over potential August 1 tariffs likely contributed to long liquidation ahead of the U.S. Wheat Quality Council’s spring wheat tour.
• Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 26.9 million bushels, bringing the 2025/26 total to 111 million bushels—14% ahead of last year. Inspections are currently running above the USDA’s pace for projected exports of 850 million bushels, which would be a 3% increase year over year.
• Bangladesh signed a five-year trade agreement to purchase 700,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat annually—a bullish development, as the country traditionally relies on Black Sea suppliers and buys far less from the U.S.
• The weather outlook for the month of August in South America calls for widespread warmth, which should alleviate freeze concerns. Additionally, dryness in Argentina should allow for the end of wheat planting to go smoothly.
• Over the weekend the Canadian prairies saw scattered showers. Heavier totals were present in Saskatchewan and Alberta, with lighter amounts in Manitoba (where it has been drier). Additionally, more rain is expected through next week. In general, this moisture should benefit their spring wheat crop.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures began the week in red territory as spot market bidding in cheese and butter have cooled down. 
• The market is awaiting Tuesday’s Milk Production report and Friday’s Cold Storage report to help give a sense of direction for the next month. 
• For the month of July, spot butter has lost 8.75c whereas spot cheese is down 5.625c so far.
• August Class III traded in a wide range on Monday, pushing up as high as $18.06 but settling down at $17.63.
• Class IV still holds the edge over III in all nearby contracts. Despite worries of overproduction, Class IV hasn’t waivered much up to this point. 

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Author

Amanda Brill