CORN

• Dalian corn futures fell and U.S. rains are aiding crop prospects amid expectations for a strong U.S. and record Brazil crop.
• Weaker U.S. corn export outlook could lift 25/26 carryout to 2,085M bu vs USDA’s 1,660M, despite higher feed and ethanol use estimates.
• Delayed Brazil safrinha harvest and logistics issues are firming Brazilian corn basis.

SOYBEANS

• Dalian soy complex futures rose, while North and East Corn Belt rains are expected to support U.S. soybean yields.
• Crop optimism and uncertain U.S. soybean demand, with lower export estimates, could push 25/26 carryout to 510M bu vs USDA’s 310M.
• Brazil basis strengthened on reports of increased Chinese buying and slower farmer selling.

WHEAT

• Rising Russian wheat export prices on lower yield concerns and firm cash markets may boost U.S. and EU export demand.
• Southern Hemisphere crop prospects are providing resistance to global wheat prices.
• U.S. ND wheat tour pegs first-day yield at 50 bpa (vs 52 last year, 45 avg); U.S. carryout seen at 895M bu with higher exports offsetting lower feed use.

Author

Matt Mattke