CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures closed lower today, pressured by favorable weather forecasts across key growing regions, which continue to reinforce expectations for a record-breaking harvest. The market also struggled to build momentum following yesterday’s trade deal announcements and overnight developments, as favorable weather continues to take precedence over potential demand drivers. The lead month September contract remains below the psychological 400 price level.
• Traders remain cautious regarding the U.S.-Japan trade agreement, as Japan is already a major buyer of U.S. corn. In 2024, Japan ranked as the second-largest customer, importing $2.7 billion worth of corn. However, with few concrete details available, it remains unclear whether the deal will spur additional demand or simply formalize existing trade flows.
• Ethanol production for the week ending July 18 slightly declined to 1.078 million barrels per day, down from 1.087 million the previous week, marking a 1.6% year-over-year decrease. The production process consumed 15.37 million bushels of corn per day, exceeding the 15.3 million bushels per day pace needed to meet the USDA’s annual target. Year-to-date corn usage for ethanol production now totals 4.827 billion bushels.
• Ethanol stocks rose to 24.44 million barrels, marking a 3.4% increase compared to the same period last year. The build in stocks suggest that no changes are expected to the USDA’s corn usage forecast in the upcoming WASDE report.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower after falling from highs earlier in the day. The initial run higher was a result of a trade agreement with Japan and a deal in the works with the Philippines. Although August is expected to be hot and on the drier side, forecasts have slowly shifted to be slightly more favorable for growing conditions.
• Expectations for a large crop and softening demand continue to weigh on new-crop balance sheets. Some analysts project 2025/26 U.S. soybean ending stocks could rise to 510 million bushels — well above the USDA’s July estimate of 310 million — amid weaker domestic demand and export uncertainty.
• In China, soybean imports from Brazil have reportedly risen by 9.2% from the previous year. This was driven by a strong Brazilian harvest along with the ongoing U.S. trade war. Last month, China imported 86.6% of their total imports from Brazil alone.
• While Monday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean good to excellent ratings fall by 2 points to 68%, this is still a strong number historically. August weather will be a key factor and forecasts continue to fluctuate. States where crop conditions have fallen have primarily been Kansas and North Dakota.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures finished lower across all classes Tuesday, pressured by a pullback in Matif wheat and technical selling after encountering resistance at key moving averages. The weakness came despite a new U.S.-Japan trade agreement, which, while centered on the auto sector, includes agricultural products and raises hopes for future trade deals.
• Day one of the Wheat Quality Council’s spring wheat tour reported average yields of 50 bushels per acre in North Dakota after 167 fields were sampled. That’s down slightly from last year’s 52.5 bpa and well below the USDA’s forecast of 59 bpa, offering early insight into potential production shortfalls.
• According to LSEG commodities research, 25/26 European Union and United Kingdom combined wheat production is estimated at 147.9 mmt, which is a 1.2% boost from their last projection. Recently, central Europe has seen favorable rains, which is cited as the reason for the increase.
• FranceAgriMer has reported that 71% of the French soft wheat crop has been harvested as of July 14. Favorable weather has allowed the pace of fieldwork to pick up recently. In related news, The International Grain Council said that Russia’s wheat harvest is 28% complete – they also noted that so far, production is down 30% from 2024.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk failed to gain any traction today, posting sizeable losses across all 2025 and 2026 contracts.
• Spot cheese remained flat during today’s trade, closing unchanged at $1.65125/lb. Meanwhile, spot whey slipped lower, losing 1 cent to close at $0.5375/lb.
• Class IV milk mirrored Class III’s trend today, posting losses across the board amid very light trading activity.
• Spot butter fell 5.75 cents today, closing at $2.4200/lb. Spot powder also declined, giving up 2.25 cents to close at $1.2800/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg