CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures started the week with modest losses as a less threatening weather outlook and expectations for a large fall harvest weighed on prices. The front-month September contract tested recent lows but held support. Still, the weak close leaves the market vulnerable to further selling.
• USDA announced flash export sales of corn on Monday morning. Mexico purchased 225,000 MT (8.9 mb) of corn for the 2025-26 marketing year. In addition, Unknown destinations purchased 229,000 MT (9.0 mb) of corn, split with 35,000 MT (1.4 mb) for 2024-25 and 194,000 MT (7.6 mb) for 2025-26.
• Weekly corn export inspections totaled 1.522 MMT for the week ending July 24, near the high end of expectations. Total inspections are running 29% ahead of last year. With the marketing year ending August 30, exporters still need to ship 9.9 MMT in existing sales commitments.
• Forecasts into early August are calling for below-normal temperatures and normal to above-normal precipitation across most of the Corn Belt. These conditions are expected to support crop development as pollination wraps up.
• In a move to support domestic farmers, Argentine President Milei announced a reduction in corn export taxes from 12% to 9.5%. The cut could make Argentine corn more competitive on the global market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower for the second consecutive day and closed below all major moving averages. Weather forecasts over the weekend shifted to be slightly less severe, going into August with more moderate temperatures and better chances for rain. Export inspections were not supportive, and there are concerns that demand will not keep up with the larger crop that is expected. Soybean meal led the complex lower while bean oil was higher.
• USDA reported soybean inspections at 410,000 metric tons — above last week’s 377,000 tons and near the high end of trade expectations. Cumulative inspections are now running 10% ahead of last year.
• China booked 22 to 25 soybean cargoes last week, all from Brazil. Year-to-date, Brazil has shipped 284 cargoes to China, Argentina 84, and none from the U.S. — raising further concern about export demand.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 21,412 contracts which reduced their net short position to 10,866 contracts. They bought back 12,105 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 55,326 contracts and bought 3,273 contracts of meal reducing their net short position to 129,743 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures showed relative strength to start the week. Despite weakness in corn and soybeans and a sharply higher U.S. Dollar Index, Chicago wheat managed a small gain, while Kansas City and Minneapolis posted only minor losses. Bullish key reversals in September and December Paris milling wheat offered support, and fund buying may have played a role — Friday’s CFTC report showed net short positions were reduced by 14% in Chicago and 8.4% in Kansas City.
• Weekly wheat inspections totaled just 10.6 mb, falling short of the 16 mb weekly pace needed to meet USDA’s export forecast. Still, total inspections at 122 mb are running 6% ahead of last year.
• The Ukrainian economy ministry has reported that their nation has harvested 10.3 mmt of grain this season. This is 45% under the 19.0 mmt collected at the same time last year. Wheat harvest in particular has reached 7.1 mmt versus 14.7 mmt a year ago.
• The USDA ag attaché to Australia reported that widespread early July rains have improved wheat crop prospects in southern regions. With the extended forecast calling for continued favorable moisture, above-average wheat production is now expected.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures saw two-sided price action to start the week before finishing the day higher. The September contract led Class III higher, improving 24 cents to $17.79
• Spot cheese improved 1.375 cents to close at $1.64625/lb. Whey was unchanged from Friday at $0.54/lb.
• Class IV milk futures were able to catch a bounce today with 2025 contracts trading 10-25 cents higher on the day.
• Spot butter tacked on 3.50 cents to close right at $2.50/lb. Powder added half a cent to go home at $1.2925/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty