CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Led by selling in the front month September contract, corn futures finished the day with moderate losses as sellers stayed in control as the market is looking for bullish news. September futures broke to new contract lows as the spread between September and December continues to widen, weighing on corn futures.
• Trade negotiators from the U.S. and China, meeting in Stockholm, agreed to extend the current “trade truce,” though no formal trade agreement has been reached. Final approval rests with President Trump. If the extension is rejected, tariffs could revert to April levels — raising uncertainty around future ag trade.
• As expected, the national corn crop rating declined 1 point to 73% good to excellent. While ratings in Southern states softened as crops near maturity, the key “I-states” (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana) each improved by 1 point. This remains the second-highest crop rating for this week in the past 10 years, trailing only 2016.
• Brazil Ag agency, CONAB, estimated the second crop corn harvest in Brazil has reached 66% complete, up 11% on the week. Harvest pace has improved over the past few weeks with improved weather as Brazilian producers are harvesting a record second crop corn.
• Forecasts into early August are calling for below-normal temperatures and normal to above-normal precipitation across most of the Corn Belt. These conditions are expected to support crop development as the crop moves past the pollination stages nationally.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower for the third consecutive day as weather forecasts for August continue to trend to be more temperate. Traders are increasingly worried that the August WASDE could show higher-than-expected yields, raising the potential for a larger carryout amid continued weak export demand. Soybean meal was lower, while soybean oil gained alongside a strong rally in crude oil.
• Monday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean conditions improving, with 70% rated good to excellent — up 2 points from last week and above last year’s 67%. The crop is now 76% blooming and 41% setting pods.
• The 90-day tariff pause on Chinese goods is set to end on August 12, but today it was reported that U.S. and Chinese officials would seek to extend this tariff truce. Unfortunately, it appears that a trade deal is not yet close, and China’s unwillingness to cooperate could signal that they will not be in great need of U.S. soybeans this fall.
• Yesterday, the USDA reported soybean inspections at 410,000 metric tons — above last week’s 377,000 tons and near the high end of trade expectations. Cumulative inspections are now running 10% ahead of last year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures were lower across all three classes on Tuesday, pressured by a rising U.S. dollar and a falling Russian ruble. The dollar hit its highest level in over a month, adding headwinds to the grain complex — wheat in particular.
• According to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, winter wheat harvest is 80% complete, down 1% from both last year and the five-year average. As for spring wheat, the crop was rated 49% good to excellent, down 3% from last week. Additionally, 92% of that crop is headed, and harvest is just underway at 1% complete.
• European Union 2025/26 soft wheat exports are off to a weak start, down 64% from last year at just 803,300 metric tons, compared to 2.25 mmt at the same point in 2024.
• Brazilian wheat planting is nearing completion. According to CONAB, through July 19 an estimated 96.9% of the crop has been sown, which is in line with last year. And in the region of Parana, where planting is complete, 82% of the crop is said to be in good condition.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures appear to be ready for the next leg lower after another round of selling on Tuesday wiped out the last few days of gains.
• The market turned sour after block cheese sellers took the price from green to unchanged during today’s 10-minute spot trade. Sellers sold 13 loads of blocks today.
• August Class III traded as low as $17.07 and finished down 21c to $17.15. The contract was within 4c of making a new low.
• The Class IV trade was mostly red across the board as well as premium starts to erode from those $19+ contracts.
• Today was the last trading day for the July 2025 dairy contracts. They will be settled tomorrow, and August now moves into the front month spot.

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Author

John Heinberg