Crops Ratings and Calendar Closing the Window on Weather Markets

What’s Happened…

The 2025 corn and soybean crops are not in the bin yet, however, high crop ratings and a good weather forecast for early August suggest the timetable for adverse crop–related weather is quickly closing. The weekly crop progress and ratings report issued by the USDA on July 28 indicated 73% of the corn crop as rated good to excellent. This compares to last year’s 68%. Keep in mind that planted corn acres are up 4.7 million. Bottom line, there are more acres and a better–rated crop compared to a year ago at this same time. The yield for the 2024 crop was 177.3 bpa and the current estimate for this year’s crop is 181 according to the most recent USDA supply and demand report issued July 11. The soybean crop is currently rated 70% good to excellent, up 3% from this same week last year. Current yield for the 2025 crop is projected at 52.5 bpa. The yield for 2024 was 50.7.

Why this is Important…. 

Weather conditions during August are critical to crop development. A year ago, mostly dry conditions engulfed the Midwest. Yield reductions were noted in the November and January supply and demand reports, with corn losing nearly 5 bushels per acre and soybeans nearly 2 bushels per acre from estimates issued late summer.  

As it currently looks, forecasters are anticipating mostly normal conditions with continuous rain in the one-to-two-week forecast. The implication is that a repeat of last year’s hot and dry weather during August doesn’t appear likely. Each year is different. August may yet have challenges for this year’s crop, as things like tassel wrap and hot humid nights could impact yield. Some farmers have suggested there has simply been too much rain that could impact yield, especially for soybeans.

What can you do about it?

Recognize there may be additional price weakness. In years of bigger crops, there is a tendency for the markets to bottom in late August or September on the perception of ample inventory. End user purchases will likely remain steady, but with good crops on the way, they will only buy as needed. Farmers are finishing hauling last year’s crop out of storage. For many, big crops mean they may not have ample storage. Now is the time to have conversations about that potential extra supply. Every day, the market offers new opportunities and risks.

Find out what works for you…

Work with a professional to find the strategy or strategies that are best suited for your operation. Communication is important. Ask critical questions and garner a full comprehension of consequences and potential rewards before executing. The idea is to make good decisions for the operation and less emotionally–charged responses to market moves, which are always dynamic. 

About the Author: With the wisdom of 30 years at Total Farm Marketing and a following across the Grain Belt, Bryan Doherty is deeply passionate about his clients, their success, and long-term, fruitful relationships. As a senior market advisor and vice president of brokerage solutions, Doherty lives and breathes farm marketing. He has an in-depth understanding of the tools and markets, listens, and communicates with intent and clarity to ensure clients are comfortable with the decisions. 

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Bryan Doherty