CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures finished mixed, with front-month contracts showing buying strength supported by positive export news. Gains remained modest as the market balances an improved new-crop demand forecast against the potential for a record corn harvest this fall.
• Weekly corn export sales reflected a strong week of activity for new crop corn. For the week ending July 24, new crop corn sales were 1.892 MMT (74.5 mb), which was above market expectations as U.S. corn is competitive versus global competition. Old crop sales slowed as the market year is winding down at 349,000 MT (13.4 mb) down 47% from last week.
• USDA reported three flash sales of corn on Thursday morning. Unknown destinations purchased 136,000MT (5.3 mb), Colombia purchased 100,000 MT (3.9 mb), and South Korea purchased 140,000 MT (5.5 mb). All purchases were for the 2025-26 marketing year.
• President Trump announced a 90-day negotiation period with Mexico regarding trade and possible tariffs. The U.S. is currently holding the 25% trade tariff in place for the 90-day time window. Mexico is the largest importer on U.S. corn.
• The U.S. Dollar Index is trading at its highest level since May, recovering from recent lows. A stronger dollar against foreign currencies may reduce or eliminate the competitive edge U.S. corn currently holds in the export market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed lower for the fifth straight day, pressured by improving August crop forecasts. November soybeans hit their lowest close since early April. While export sales remained solid, they weren’t enough to support prices. Today also marked first notice day for August futures. Soybean meal gained ground, but soybean oil declined alongside crude oil.
• Today the USDA reported an increase of 12.8 million bushels of soybean export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 15.8 mb for 25/26. This was within trade expectations, and top buyers were Egypt, Mexico, and the Netherlands. Last week’s export shipments of 18.4 mb were above the 17.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates.
• Private analyst in Brazil are estimating continued growth in Brazil’s soybean production for 2025-26. The expectations are for Brazil’s crop next year to reach nearly 120 million acres of production and production to grow to nearly 180 MMT.
• With the 90-day U.S.-China tariff pause set to expire on August 12, officials are reportedly working to extend the agreement. However, progress on a broader trade deal remains elusive, and China’s limited cooperation casts doubt on their need for U.S. soybeans in the near term.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower in Chicago, while mixed in Kansas City and Minneapolis. Weighing on the market was a lower close for Matif wheat futures and the break in the US Dollar Index above its 100 day moving average. However, it appears wheat is trying to stabilize at these lower levels after having become technically oversold.
• The USDA reported an increase of 21.8 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26 and an increase of 1.4 mb for 26/27. Shipments last week totaled 10.9 mb, which falls under the 16.5 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 850 mb. Total 25/26 export commitments have reached 351 mb, up 15% from last year.
• Recent rains have brought improvements to drought conditions for both winter and spring wheat. As of July 29, according to the USDA an estimated 30% of US winter wheat areas are experiencing drought, down 1% from last week. Spring wheat acres in drought declined 5% from last week to 38%.
• Ukraine’s economy ministry has reported that their nation has harvested 15.5 mmt of grain. Of that total, wheat accounts for 11.36 mmt; total grain harvest is expected to reach 53 mmt.
• The Polish Central Statistics Office is estimating their 2025 wheat harvest will total 12.8 mmt. If realized, this would be a 3% increase year over year. Total grain production is anticipated at 25.4 mmt, which would be in line with last year’s figure.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The second month September contract closed up 27 cents to at $17.60. Optimism likely came from the 90-day extension on the current tariff levels with Mexico.
• Spot cheese was the only mover today, closing up a half cent. Whey enters Friday down 0.75 cents on the week.
• Class IV action was unchanged in the nearby contracts while sellers took the December to March contracts down.
• Both spot butter and powder were unchanged today. They enter Friday up less than a penny on the week.

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Author

Brandon Doherty