CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures hit new lows as strong crop ratings and expectations for a large harvest outweighed supportive demand; technicals remain weak, encouraging sellers.
• USDA reported a flash sale of 128,000 MT (5.03 mb) of corn to unknown destinations for 2025/26. U.S. corn remains highly competitive, with new crop sales ranking third-best in a decade for this time of year.
• Corn crop rating remains strong at 73% G/E. Only 2016 was rated higher in the past decade for this time frame. The strong ratings have corn market traders comfortable with the short side of the market given the possible potential yield.
• The corn market will be looking toward the August WASDE report on August 12 and the potential adjustments in corn yield given the condition of the crop. One private analyst group forecasted the August yield at 188.1 bushels/acre, up 7 bu/acre of trendline yield. More individual private analysts’ estimates will start hitting the news as the report moves closer.
• Weather forecasts remain most favorable in the near term. Temperatures are expected to trend above normal, but rainfall is expected to also be normal to above normal for the same time period.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended lower after early gains faded; November briefly broke above $10.00 before slipping. Soybean meal rose, but bean oil followed crude lower.
• Brazilian soybean farmers are expected to plant 120 million acres in the 25/26 season according to consulting firm Celeres. StoneX anticipates that this will cause production to rise by 5.6% from the previous season to 178.2 mmt. For the 24/25 season, StoneX raised its production forecast to 111.7 mmt.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean ratings fall one point from last week to 69% good to excellent, but trade expected this. 58% of the soybean crop is setting pods and 85% is blooming
• Yesterday’s Export Inspection report saw soybean sales still sluggish but ahead of last week at 613k tons. This compared to 428k last week and 267k a year ago. Poor export demand combined with likely large yields have pressured the market- StoneX has forecast US yields at 53.6 bpa.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat markets closed lower across the entire complex today as new crop supplies continue to enter the pipeline. Active global harvest pressure and steady farmer selling have weighed on prices. With favorable weather expected to persist through the remainder of the harvest season, fresh supplies are likely to keep flowing into the market in the near term.
• The U.S. winter wheat harvest is now 86% complete, in line with the five-year average. Progress remains slowest in Montana and South Dakota, where harvest operations are trailing behind other key producing states.
• Open interest in Chicago wheat jumped over 18,000 contracts Monday despite flat prices, signaling fresh positioning ahead of key supply updates.
• Wheat export inspections for the week ending July 31 totaled 599,595 metric tons. Cumulative inspections for the marketing year to date have reached 3,911,270 metric tons, up 8.7% from the same period last year. This represents 16.9% of USDA’s 2025/26 export forecast, compared to the five-year average of 15.6% at this point in the season.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures continue to creep higher, supported by stronger demand for cheese. September futures were the biggest mover on the day, gaining 26 cents to close at $18.37.
• Spot cheese was higher for a seventh day in a row as demand starts to ramp up. Cheese currently sits at $1.79625. Whey improved a penny on the day to finish at $0.56/lb.
• Class IV milk futures were quiet on Tuesday with just the August and November contract seeing any changes. August futures lost 4 cents while November futures lost 2 cents.
• Spot butter gave back more than what was gained just the day prior to close at $2.44/lb. Powder tacked on half a cent to go home at $1.28/lb.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Brandon Doherty