CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures pushed to fresh lows on Wednesday, testing key psychological levels of $3.80 for September and $4.00 for December. The potential for a record harvest continues to outweigh a strong demand tone, keeping downside momentum intact.
• December corn futures, the most actively traded contract, spent much of the session below $4.00. However, a firmer wheat market and late-session profit-taking helped prices recover slightly into the close.
• Weekly ethanol production fell to 318 million gallons/day last week, down from 322 last week, but still 1% higher over last year. An estimated 108 mb of corn was used last week for ethanol production. This was below the estimates needed to reach the USDA 2024-25 ethanol targets. USDA will likely lower ethanol usage slightly in next week’s report for old crop corn.
• Corn export demand remains robust. U.S. Census data showed June corn exports at 256.6 million bushels, the second-largest on record. July shipments remain strong, and new crop sales are off to their best start in several years amid firm global demand.
• USDA will release weekly export sales data on Thursday morning. Old crop sales are expected to remain softer with the marketing year coming to a close on August 30, but new crop sales should remain strong. With published sales, approximately 862,000 MT of new crop sales were published for the week ending July 31.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed lower for the second consecutive day and once again started the day with gains before giving them up into the close. Better chances for August rains along with expectations for high yields in next week’s WASDE report pressured the soy complex. Soybean meal was lower while bean oil was mixed with the two front months lower and back months higher.
• Brazilian soybean sales for the 2024/25 season are 78.4% complete as of August 5, down from 82.2% sold a year ago, according to Safras & Mercado. Sales for the 2025/26 crop are at 16.6% of expected output.
• Brazilian soybean farmers are expected to plant 120 million acres in the 25/26 season according to consulting firm Celeres. StoneX anticipates that this will cause production to rise by 5.6% from the previous season to 178.2 mmt. For the 24/25 season, StoneX raised its production forecast to 111.7 mmt
• Trade rumors of a potential U.S.-China agreement offered early support, but with China still absent from the U.S. soybean market, trader confidence may be fading. Additionally, President Trump’s move to raise tariffs on India to 50% may add downside pressure to soy prices.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• After five consecutive days of losses, the wheat markets finally posted gains by the close of Wednesday’s trading session, supported by a strong start to U.S. export demand for the 2025–2026 marketing year.
• While most U.S. crops are thriving, spring wheat continues to face challenges. The crop’s good-to-excellent rating fell to 48%, down 1% from the previous week and significantly lower than last year’s rating of 74%. However, the top-producing state, North Dakota, is showing more favorable conditions, with 64% of its crop rated good to excellent.
• U.S. wheat exports reached 63 million bushels in June, marking a 13% increase year over year. The top export destinations included the Philippines, Mexico, Nigeria, and Japan. With the U.S. wheat harvest nearing completion, traders are hopeful that the current export momentum will continue into the coming months.
• Combined open interest in Chicago and Kansas City wheat rose by nearly 9,000 contracts yesterday, even as prices dropped to new lows. While the market is showing increasingly oversold conditions, this alone does not necessarily signal an imminent rally from a technical standpoint.
• The spring wheat harvest is expected to continue in the near term, as producers work around forecasted storms across parts of the Plains. While weather disruptions may slow progress in some areas, harvest activity remains steady overall. U.S. spring wheat harvest stands at 86% complete, just one point below the five-year average.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures ended the day mixed, with August falling 5 cents, while September gained 6 cents to close higher.
• Spot cheese declined by 0.1250 cents to close at $1.7950 per pound, while spot whey remained steady at $0.56 per pound.
• Spot butter fell 1 cent to close at $2.430 per pound, while spot powder held steady at $1.2800 per pound.
• Class IV markets struggled to gain positive momentum today, closing lower across all contracts. October fell 13 cents, while November dropped 23 cents.

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Author

John Heinberg