TFM Midday Update 8-11-2025

CORN

Corn markets are trading higher at midday as traders position ahead of tomorrow’s USDA Supply and Demand Report, with export expectations coming in above trade estimates.
Yield expectations for tomorrow’s report are projected at 184.3 bushels per acre, up from 181.0 last month. New crop ending stocks are estimated at 1.902 billion bushels, an increase from 1.660 billion in July.
Brazil’s corn harvest is nearing 80% completion, slightly behind last year’s pace of 90% at this time.
APK raised Ukraine’s production up to 27.5 million tons from 24.9 previously.

Soybeans continue to trade higher at midday, supported by headlines that President Trump is urging China to quadruple their soybean imports from the U.S. ahead of tomorrow’s tariff deadline. Adding to the momentum, soybean export sales came in above all trade estimates, lifting the entire soy complex.
Tomorrow’s USDA Supply and Demand Report is expected to show soybean yields at 52.9 bushels per acre, up from 52.5 in July. Global ending stocks are projected to increase by just over 1 million metric tons compared to last month.
The typical peak buying period for U.S. soybeans by China runs from October through January. With this window rapidly approaching and no trade deal yet in place, traders are expressing concern about potential market impacts.
Weekend rains fell across Kansas, Iowa, and Wisconsin, providing beneficial moisture for soybean crop development, while the rest of the Midwest remained dry.

Wheat continues to follow strength in corn and soybeans, trading mixed at midday as buyers position ahead of tomorrow’s USDA Supply and Demand Report, with export expectations coming in on the lower end of trade estimates.
U.S. wheat ending stocks are expected at 882 million bushels, down from 890 million in July, while all winter wheat production is forecast at 1.920 billion bushels, slightly lower than last month’s 1.929 billion.
President Trump and Putin are expected to meet in Alaska in the coming days to discuss next steps.
Chicago wheat open interest declined by just over 9,600 contracts on Friday, following significant gains over the past two weeks.

Lauren VandenLangenberg