CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market began the week with modest gains, supported by strength in the soybean market and friendly corn demand, as traders positioned ahead of Tuesday’s August WASDE report.
• The August USDA Crop Production Report, set for release Tuesday, is expected to include potential yield adjustments that could impact market direction. Analysts peg average corn yield at 184.3 bu/acre, 3.3 bu/acre above trend, with estimates ranging from 182.5 to 188.1 — setting the stage for volatility. In addition, the market will be closely watched for demand-side adjustments, as new crop ending stocks are expected to rise to 1.900 billion bushels, up from 1.660 billion. The projected increase in production is anticipated to contribute to the larger carryout.
• USDA did not announce any flash sales of corn on Monday but did release weekly export inspections. For the week ending August 7, US exporters shipped 1.492 MMT (58.7 mb) of corn, above market expectations.
• Corn export shipments out of Brazil last week were at 1.71 MMT, which was down 0.9% under last week. Corn shipments out of Brazil to date for August at 7.58 MMT, up 18% over last year as Brazil wraps up harvest of a record second corn crop.
• Still in search of a deal with China, President Trump signed an executive order on Monday afternoon to extend the tariff deadline with China until November 9. China is still absent from the U.S. corn and soybean export market going into the 2025-26 marketing years.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply higher, with the November contract recovering a significant portion of the losses from the past two weeks after President Trump urged China to ‘quadruple’ its soybean purchases. Shortly after the market closed, it was announced that the U.S. would extend its pause on Chinese tariffs until November 9, providing additional time for trade negotiations.
• Export inspections came in better than expected today with soybean inspections totaling 19 mb for the week ending August 7. This put total inspections for 24/25 at 1.77 bb, which is up 11% from the previous year at this time. China has remained absent from purchasing.
• The August USDA Crop Production report will be out tomorrow and could bring yield adjustments to the soybean crop. Analysts peg average yield at 53.0 bu/acre, 0.5 bu/acre above the trendline, with estimates ranging from 52.0 to 54.0 bpa — setting the stage for volatility.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 29,619 contracts increasing their net short position to 65,930 contracts. They sold 11,661 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 54,939 contracts and 234 contracts of meal leaving them short 133,592 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed quietly, hovering near neutral, as traders weighed multiple factors ahead of tomorrow’s monthly WASDE report, where the U.S. wheat balance sheet is expected to show a slightly bullish outlook. However, today’s higher U.S. Dollar and lower close for Matif wheat likely limited upside for U.S. futures.
• The average pre-report estimate of U.S. 25/26 all wheat production comes in at 1.925 bb, down slightly from the 1.929 bb estimated in July. When broken down by class, winter wheat production is expected to increase 4 mb, while spring wheat is expected to decrease 7 mb. Additionally, U.S. ending stocks are expected to fall 1 mb to 850 mb for 24/25, while for 25/26 the carryout is anticipated to decline by 5 mb to 885 mb.
• Weekly wheat inspections amounted to 13.4 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 161 mb, up 2% from last year. This is below the USDA’s projected pace; 25/26 exports are estimated up 3% from the year prior at 850 mb.
• President Trump will meet this Friday in Alaska with Russian President Putin to discuss the war in Ukraine, which will hopefully lead to a peace deal. There were also rumors that Ukraine’s President Zelensky would be in attendance, but at this time that has not been confirmed.
• According to Rusagrotrans, Russia shipped 1.78 mmt of wheat in the month of July, which is down from the 2.8 mmt exported last year. Egypt was the top purchaser at 371,000 mt, followed by Turkey at 228,000 mt, and Saudi Arabia at 128,000 mt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot cheese was slightly higher to start the week, improving 0.625 cents to $1.83/lb. Whey gained half a cent to $0.5850/lb.
• Class III milk futures were supported by a slightly higher spot trade for products. September futures saw the largest gain of 25 cents to close at $18.87.
• Spot butter fell for a fifth straight session, losing 1.50 cents to close at $2.34/lb. Powder lost 0.75 cents to close at $1.2575/lb.
• Class IV milk futures were steadily lower, pressured by a poor spot session for Class IV products. September futures saw the largest loss of 27 cents to close at $18.46.

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Author

John Heinberg