TFM Morning Update 08-13-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning following yesterday’s sell-off caused by a very bearish WASDE report. Yesterday, December corn made a new contract low and has not taken out that low yet today.
Yesterday’s WASDE report was very bearish with the USDA pegging the 25/26 yield at 188.8 bpa while the average guess was 184.3 bpa. 25/26 ending stocks are now expected at 2.12 billion bushels, up from 1.66 bb expected in July.
Estimates for the weekly EIA report see ethanol production slightly higher than last week at 1.084m b/d. Stockpiles are expected lower at 23.722m bbl.

Soybeans are trading higher following yesterday’s big rally and surprisingly bullish WASDE report. November futures are trading at the highest level since the previous July 18 high. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher.
Yesterday, the USDA surprised traders by decreasing planted acreage for soybeans which sharply cut the 25/26 ending stocks to 290 mb from an average guess of 358 mb. Yield was raised to 53.6 bpa, but the crop will still be smaller than expected.
The US is reportedly losing out on Chinese soybean sales as Brazil fills their needs during this key export period for the US. President Trump has tried to encourage China to buy, but they have been absent.

Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago wheat higher while KC and Minneapolis wheat trade lower. Yesterday, wheat prices fell sharply even with a slightly friendly USDA report, wheat seemed to follow corn lower.
Yesterday’s report saw wheat ending stocks for 25/26 down to869 mb from 890 mb last month. World wheat ending stocks were pegged down below trade expectations.
Monday’s Crop Progress report saw spring wheat conditions improve one point to 49% good to excellent which is still a far cry from last year’s 72% at this time. 16% of the crop has been harvested and 90% of the winter wheat crop has been harvested.

Amanda Brill