TFM Midday Update 8-13-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher at midday as traders digest yesterday’s USDA report, which revealed a record-large acreage increase in the August update along with a significant boost to yield estimates.
Markets remain concerned about whether U.S. export demand for corn can grow enough to offset the impact of a record crop.
U.S. crop tours assessing the current corn crop are set to begin next week and are expected to provide either confirmation or contradiction of the USDA’s yield and acreage estimates.
Ethanol production rebounded to 321 million gallons last week, up from 318 million the previous week and 2% higher year over year. The production process used 109 million bushels of corn, averaging 15.56 million bushels per day — well above the 14.9 million bushels per day needed to meet the USDA’s revised annual forecast of 5.472 billion bushels.

Soybeans continue to gain at midday, supported by yesterday’s bullish USDA data. Both soybeans and soybean meal are trading higher, while soybean oil is moving lower at midday.
Soybean futures saw their highest daily trading volume since early April during yesterday’s session.
Traders remain cautious despite the current soybean crop being in excellent condition, acknowledging that there’s still time for weather or other factors to impact yields before harvest is complete.
While the USDA did trim new crop export projections, forecasting demand remains challenging without a signed trade agreement with China.
ANEC raised their Brazil bean export forecast for August to 8.8 million tons, up from 8.15 estimated last week.

Wheat is trading mixed at midday as traders digest yesterday’s USDA report, which offered no major surprises for the wheat markets.
SovEcon raised their Russian wheat production estimate to 85.2 million tons, up from 83.6 on a larger planted area.
Ukraine’s exports since July 1st remain slow, totaling 1.42 million tons — down significantly from 2.61 million tons during the same period last year.
EU SRW exports through August 10 are down 56% year over year due to weaker demand and Black Sea competition.

Lauren VandenLangenberg