CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market posted marginal gains on Wednesday as the market continues to process Tuesday’s negative USDA crop production report forecasting a record corn crop for this fall. Strength in other grains helped provide support to the market.
• Even with a yield forecast well above expectations, the addition of 2.1 million acres to the corn crop was the biggest weight on prices and potential supplies ballooned. The corn market is in a supply driven bear market, and demand will be the key to working through a burdensome supply outlook.
• New crop corn export sales are off to a strong start with one of the best years in accumulated sales over the past two decades. As of July 31, new crop export sales commitments have totaled 11.77 MMT (433.2 mb). This is over twice as much corn sold last year for the 2024-25 marketing year at this time window.
• USDA will release weekly export sales report tomorrow morning. Expectations are for new sales for the 2025-26 marketing year to range from 900,000 – 2.4 MMT for the week ending August 7.
• Participants in the corn market will be watching crop tours and “boots on the ground” tours to determine if the USDA yield is accurate. Finishing weather and disease pressure are going to be components in the final yield level puzzle.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply higher for the third consecutive day with the November contract posting its highest close since July 3 and filled the gap on the chart for that day. For the week, November soybeans have gained a whopping 56-3/4 cents so far. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher as well.
• The U.S. is reportedly losing out on Chinese soybean sales as Brazil fills their needs during this key export period for the U.S. President Trump has tried to encourage China to buy, but they have been absent. In addition, U.S. soybeans are now much more expensive than Brazilian offers.
• Highlights from yesterday’s report included an increase in estimated yield to 53.6 bpa. This was above the average trade estimate of 53 bpa and was above last month’s estimate of 52.5 bpa. However, both production and ending stocks were lowered due to a surprise revision lower in planted acreage. Ending stocks for 25/26 are now at just 290 mb, below the estimate of 360 mb. World-ending stocks were lowered slightly for 25/26.
• Weather forecasts throughout the rest of the month call for warm summer temperatures and enough moisture to get through pod fill. It is possible that the USDA increases yield again in the September report, but it is also possible that export demand is lowered which could see the ending stocks number increase.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat had a mixed close today, not able to find strength in either direction. This is likely the result of a somewhat neutral report yesterday, along with a lack of fresh impactful news. While September Chicago did make a new low today, it has not breached support at the five-dollar level, yet. Wheat may continue to follow corn for the time being.
• Early next week, Argentinian wheat growing areas are expected to see beneficial rains. Meanwhile, rain in the US northern Plains is expected to have a negative impact on spring wheat quality and may also slow harvest.
• According to the Russian agriculture ministry, their 2025 grain harvest is 47% complete – an estimated 75 mmt of grain has been collected so far. Recently, they estimated that total grain output would reach 135 mmt.
• SovEcon has increased their Russian wheat production estimate from 83.6 mmt to 85.2 mmt. Better than expected yields, along with higher acreage, are cited as the reasons for the uptick. Wheat planted area is now estimated at 26.9 million hectares versus 26.6 million hectares previously.
• European Union soft wheat exports reached 1.43 mmt as of August 10; the export season began on July 1. This total is down about 56% from the 3.28 mmt shipped during the same timeframe last year. The top importer was Saudi Arabia, followed by Nigeria and Algeria.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures weakened in midweek trade, with the September contract losing 27 cents to settle at $18.68.
• Spot cheese remained unchanged today, closing at $1.8700/lb, while spot whey gained 2.75 cents to settle at $0.6125/lb.
• Spot butter declined today, losing 2.50 cents to close at $2.2800/lb, while spot powder gained 1.50 cents, settling at $1.2650/lb.
• Class IV milk also experienced a negative trade today, with the September contract losing 4 cents to close at $18.18.

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Author

Brandon Doherty