TFM Midday Update 08-20-2025

CORN

Corn prices are moving higher at midday, supported by news of U.S. corn sales. The fresh demand has provided a boost to market sentiment, offering a slight lift to the market.
USDA confirms the sale of 100,000 tons of corn to Colombia and 125,741 tons to Mexico of U.S. corn for the 25/26 year.
The Pro Farmer Crop Tour continues to report strong results, with Ohio and South Dakota showing particularly impressive performance — prompting talk of potential record yields. Nebraska also posted a solid showing at 179.5 bushels per acre, its highest yield since 2021 and well above the previous average of 173.25. While weather conditions have introduced some variability in the fields, the tour has generally found record-level pod and ear counts across key areas. Today, the tour moves through Illinois and Iowa, where results will be closely watched to further assess the potential of this year’s crop.
Ethanol production declined to 315 million gallons last week, hitting a 12-week low compared to 321 million gallons the previous week and marking a 2.4% decrease year-over-year. Corn usage for ethanol production totaled 107 million bushels, averaging 15.26 million bushels per day—above the 14.92 million bushels per day needed to meet the USDA’s forecast.

Soybeans are trading higher at midday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and optimism following a recent soybean sale to Mexico. Both soybeans and soybean meal are showing gains, while soybean oil is trading lower.
As the Pro Farmer Crop Tour progresses across the U.S., scouts continue to report that soybean crops are in very good condition overall, with only minor trouble spots linked to localized weather issues. The tour is highlighting strong yield potential, with Nebraska and Indiana showing signs of possible record production.
Traders remain concerned about China’s demand for the new crop, as uncertainty lingers over whether a trade agreement can be reached in time to capitalize on the typical U.S. export window in the fall and early winter.
Brazil’s soybean exports for August are now projected at 8.9 million tons, up slightly from last week’s estimate of 8.8 million. Soymeal exports were also revised higher to 2.33 million tons, compared to 2.27 million previously. The increase comes as no surprise, with China continuing to turn to Brazil as a source for soybeans.
The American Soybean Association sent a letter to President Trump yesterday, urging the administration to avoid further prolonging the trade war with China. They emphasized the financial strain U.S. farmers are facing due to persistently low prices and reduced export volumes to China. In the letter, the organization called on the President to make soybeans a key priority in ongoing trade negotiations.

The wheat market posted gains at midday, supported by strength from a declining U.S. dollar, which is falling back toward recent lows.
IKAR increased its Russian wheat production estimate by 1 million metric tons, bringing the total to 85.5 million tons. Meanwhile, the European Union is facing a crop that is 16 million tons larger than last year’s harvest.
The U.S. spring wheat harvest has caught up to its typical pace and, as of this past Sunday, is approximately one-third complete.
Potential rainfall expected across the Southern Plains over the next week is helping to ease concerns about soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting.

Lauren VandenLangenberg