CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures finished slightly higher on the session, supported by the wheat market, the prospects of a tighter supply and favorable demand tone. September corn finished 1 cent higher to 389 ½ and the December contract gained ¾ cent to 412 ¼.
• Pro Farmer pegged national corn yield at 182.7 bpa (range 180.9–184.5) on Friday afternoon, well below USDA’s 188.8 bpa forecast. The market is weighing a final outcome between the two, with shrinking crop potential and solid demand underpinning prices.
• Export inspections stayed strong, with 1.302 MMT shipped in the week ending Aug. 21—near the high end of expectations and up 29% from last year. The marketing year closes Aug. 31.
• Concerns regarding fungus issues in the corn crop may push the crop toward the finish line faster than producers want, that could limit potential yield. Crop ratings and Maturity ratings on Monday’s crop progress report could reflect the impact.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower with the September contract down 11 cents at $10.25-1/2 and November down 10-3/4 cents at $10.47-3/4. October soybean meal was up $0.70 at $289 while October soybean oil was down 0.44 cents to 54.50 cents. Prices faded from earlier morning highs as trade worries about a lack of a Chinese trade deal.
• Comments from China over the weekend highlighted “rampant” U.S. protectionism threatening agricultural ties, fueling concern that a trade agreement may not materialize.
• Pro Farmer pegged the national soybean yield at 53.0 bpa, slightly below USDA’s 53.6 bpa estimate. Disease issues similar to those seen in corn were noted, which could support prices later if conditions worsen.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 35,273 contracts which flipped their net short position to a net long position of just 3 contracts. They sold 13,070 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 31,342 contracts and bought back 24,070 contracts of meal leaving them short 85,239 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat began the week with mixed performance. Chicago wheat posted modest gains, while Kansas City wheat ended the day slightly lower. The market found some support from last week’s decline in the U.S. dollar, as well as a somewhat encouraging weekly export inspections report.
• Weekly wheat inspections amounted to 34.8 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 212 mb, which is up 11% from last year. Inspections are running a little bit above the USDA’s estimated pace; total exports for 25/26 are projected at 875 mb, up 10% from last year.
• In the southern hemisphere, Argentina saw some frost over the weekend in some wheat growing regions. This may have caused some wheat damage, and northern areas may see more frost in the coming days. Meanwhile, Australia saw heavy rains in western regions this weekend which should benefit their wheat. However, southeastern areas have been drier and need rain to help wheat that is in the reproductive stage.
• According to Friday’s CFTC Commitments of Traders report, managed funds added about 8,800 contracts to their net short position in Chicago wheat. This was about a 10% increase, bringing the total number of shorts to just over 98,000. However, in Kansas City futures, they added only 825 short contracts, a change of just under 2% for the week.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot cheese nearly recovered from last week’s losses, improving 4.25 cents to close at $1.82/lb. Whey gained half a cent to go home at $0.6050/lb.
• Class III milk futures were led higher by the spot trade. September futures added 42 cents to close at $18.76.
• Spot butter gained 3.25 cents to start the week, closing at $2.3325/lb. Powder prices were unchanged from Friday’s close at $1.27/lb.
• Class IV milk futures got a boost from increasing butter prices to start the week. November futures saw the largest gain of 23 cents to close at $18.50.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill