TFM Midday Update 8-25-2025

CORN

Corn futures are firmer Monday morning, extending last week’s strength. December futures are 2 cents higher trading at $4.14.
Last week’s Pro Farmer Crop Tour highlighted strong yield potential but still came in below USDA estimates, pegging the U.S. corn crop at 182.7 bpa versus USDA’s 188.8 bpa. The tour also noted widespread disease pressure, which could further limit yield potential.
Cooler-than-normal temperatures across much of the Corn Belt should help ease emerging dryness stress. Forecasts also point to improved chances for meaningful rainfall in the western Corn Belt as early September begins.

Soybean futures are slightly lower to start the week as prices consolidate near resistance. November futures are 6 cents lower trading at $10.52.
Pro Farmer projected the national soybean yield at 53.0 bpa, just under USDA’s 53.6 bpa estimate. Pod counts were above last year in six of seven surveyed states, with Indiana the lone exception.
On the bearish side, prospects for a grain-specific trade deal with China remain absent, while Chinese importers continue to favor Brazilian supplies. Purchases from South America are reported at 770 mb so far, 360 mb above last year’s pace, with buying extending into November.

Wheat futures are higher across the board to start the week. December Chicago futures are 6 cents higher trading at $5.33-1/2. December Spring wheat futures are 3 cents higher, trading at $5.93.
Pressuring wheat are fresh showers across the Southern Plains — particularly Kansas and Oklahoma — ahead of planting, along with weaker EU and Black Sea values as Russia and the EU compete for new export business.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that recent rains improved soil moisture across Argentina’s wheat region, aiding crop development and nutrient uptake. Planted area for 2025/26 is estimated at 6.7 million hectares, up from 6.3 million last season.

Keegan Madigan