CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures saw selling pressure as the influence of First Notice Day, and technical selling pressured the market. September corn futures finished 1 ¾ cent lower to 387 ¼, and December futures lost 2 ¾ cents.
• December failed to break resistance at 417 on Monday, sparking follow-through selling. Next support lies near 405, with the psychological 400 level below that.
• September contracts face added pressure ahead of Friday’s First Notice Day, as producers weigh pricing decisions on old-crop bushels.
• Crop ratings remain strong at 71% good-to-excellent, a point above expectations. Progress is in line with averages at 44% dented and 7% mature.
• Brazil’s second corn harvest is 94.8% complete, up 5.5 points from last week. Farmer selling remains slow, with just over 50% of the record crop sold.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher with the September contract up 3-1/4 cents at $10.28-3/4 while November was up 1-3/4 cents at $10.49-1/2. October meal gained $1.50 to $290.50, while October oil slipped 1.47 cents to 53.03. Support came from reports that China may send a top trade negotiator to the U.S.
• In what may be a sign of progressing trade talks between China and the U.S., China has said it would send a key trade negotiator to meet with U.S. officials and business leaders. This is not included in a formal negotiating session. Before making any commitments to purchase soybeans or Boeing planes, Beijing is demanding the removal of the 20% tariffs.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw soybean ratings improve one point from last week to 69% good to excellent. 89% of the crop is setting pods which is on par with the 5-year average while 4% is dropping leaves. This is compared to 6% at this time last year and the 5-year average of 4%.
• Yesterday’s export inspections were sluggish at 383k tons, which compared to 503k a week ago and 420k a year ago. Top destinations were to Indonesia, Mexico, and Italy.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures ended mixed Tuesday. September Chicago gained 2-3/4 cents to 509-1/2, while Kansas City lost 3-3/4 cents to 493 and Minneapolis fell 5-3/4 cents to 565-3/4. Support came from strong U.S. export inspections at 34.8 mb — well above expectations and more than double the prior week — but gains were capped by larger Russian crop estimates and favorable U.S. weather.
• Storms rolling through the Southern Plains are bringing widespread rainfall ahead of winter wheat planting, pressuring Kansas City futures as the added moisture should give the crop a strong start.
• According to yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report, the U.S. winter wheat crop is 98% harvested. As for the spring wheat crop, conditions dropped 1% from last week to 49% good to excellent. Additionally, that crop harvest jumped from 36% to 53% complete, which is now just 1% behind the average pace.
• IKAR has reportedly increased their estimate of Russian wheat production by 0.5 mmt to 86 mmt. For reference, the USDA figure is sitting at only 83.5 mmt. IKAR also raised their Russian wheat export projection by 0.5 mmt to 43 mmt.
• LSEG commodities research is predicting that more heavy rains for Argentine wheat regions will arrive by the end of the week. Totals could be 20-45 mm (about 3/4 to 1-3/4 inch) above normal, with a likelihood for higher amounts in the south. With soil moisture levels already adequate, this is raising some concern about root rot and other disease issues for their wheat crop.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures improved once again as the market continues to digest last week’s fundamental updates. The October contract led the way higher, up 41 cents to $18.36. 
• Spot cheese is back above the $1.80/lb level to $1.8050/lb following Friday’s friendly Cold Storage report. Whey prices were unchanged at $0.57/lb.
• Class IV futures have come under pressure as sellers hit the butter market. Remaining 2025 Class IV contracts were down 15-25 cents on the day.
• Spot butter has fallen to its lowest level since December 2021 at $2.1850/lb. Powder prices lost half a cent to go home at $1.2525/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty