TFM Daily Market Summary 08-28-2025

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Monday, September 1, in Observance of Labor Day

 

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Corn futures saw a turn on the charts technically as the selling pressure from first notice day left the market, and prices reversed higher off the session lows. September corn finished 3 cents higher to 385 ½, while December futures added 4 cents to 410. December corn finished 6 ½ cents off the session low.
  • Corn futures traded on the session low and posted a bullish reversal on daily charts. The improved technical signal could bring additional buyer support, but follow-through price action will be key going into the Labor Day weekend.
  • Weekly corn export sales for corn stay supportive of the market. For the week ending August 21, old crop corn sales saw net cancellations of 18,000 MT (.7 mb) with the marketing year ending on August 31. New crop sales totaled 2.090 MMT (82.3 mb) and were near the top end of expectations. Mexico was the largest buyer of corn last week.
  • New crop corn sales totaling 82.3 mb for this week, this has total new crop corn sales at 739 mb, nearly double last year for this time window. Historically, only 2021 was off to a stronger start. If next week’s sales total over 66 mb, 2025-26 marketing year will surpass the 2012-22 marketing year.
  • U.S. and China trade are holding trade negotiations in Washington at the end of the week. Development of a trade deal or lack of progress could pressure markets on Tuesday after the Labor Day holiday.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Soybeans ended the day mostly higher with the September contract up 1 cent at $10.28-1/4 and the November contract up ½ cent at $10.48. October soybean meal was lower by $1.40 closing at $282.90 and October soybean oil was down by 0.77 cents at 51.95 cents. Pressure is coming from fears that China will not buy U.S. soybeans.
  • So far, China has made no new crop soybean purchases from the U.S., sourcing mainly from Brazil. As a result, basis in various parts of North Dakota that export through the PNW have seen basis fall between 1.50 and 1.80 under futures.
  • Today’s export sales report was decent for soybeans with a net cancellation of 7.0 million bushels for 24/25 but an increase of 50.4 mb for the 25/26 marketing year. Top buyers were Spain, Indonesia, and South Korea. Last week’s export shipments of 15.0 mb were below the 17.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.
  • The USDA projected the national soybean yield at 53.5 bpa, while Pro Farmer estimated it at 53.0 bpa, and many traders think the actual number will be closer to 53.0. Weather has been drier than usual for August, but soil moisture levels were good enough coming into the month to maintain crop conditions.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Wheat closed higher today, gaining 8 cents for September Chicago to 510-1/4. Meanwhile, September Kansas City was up 1-1/4 cents to 486-3/4 and September MIAX was up 4-1/4 to 555-1/4. A drop in the U.S. Dollar Index was supportive to the market. Additionally, today’s GDP report showed the economy grew at a 3.3% annualized rate in the April–June period, surpassing expectations and potentially providing additional support to the grain complex.
  • The USDA reported an increase of 21.3 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 36.9 mb, which was well above the 17.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s 875 mb export goal. Wheat sales commitments now sit at 445 mb for 25/26, which is 23% up from last year.
  • Argus media has increased their estimate of Russian 25/26 wheat production to 86.1 mmt. This is up 1.3 mmt from their June estimate and compares to the USDA at 83.5 mmt. If realized, this would be the third largest Russian wheat crop on record. In addition, Argus also kept their estimate of French soft wheat production unchanged at 33.4 mmt.
  • This morning, Stats Canada released updated crop estimates. All wheat production was pegged at 35.55 mmt, which was below the average pre-report estimate of 35.9 mmt. However, this is still above the USDA forecast of 35 mmt. Of the total, spring wheat is expected to account for 26 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Class III futures were marginally lower today with the second month dropping 6 cents to $18.15.
  • Spot cheese was a half cent higher overall with a 1.50 cent gain in blocks and a half penny drop in barrels. Spot whey finished up a half cent at $0.5550/lb.
  • Class IV futures were unchanged to higher. October and November futures closed up 21 and 19 cents, respectively.
  • Spot butter gained back a portion of yesterday’s huge losses with a 3.50-cent gain, settling at $2.0850/lb. Powder was up a half cent.

 

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill

Sign up to get daily TFM Market Updates straight to your email!

back to TFM Market Updates