CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures finished with mild losses for the second straight session on Wednesday. Very quiet news and anticipation of Friday’s USDA report have helped the corn market to drift lower with narrow trading ranges in the past couple of sessions. December corn lost 2 ¾ cents to 417 and March corn slipped 3 cents to 434 ½.
• Ethanol output hit a 12-week high. For the week ending Sept. 5, average daily production was 1.105 million barrels — the highest ever for this week of the year. Roughly 110 mb of corn was used in production.
• Biofuels concerns have trickled into the market again on Wednesday as the White House is looking at limiting the amount of blending mandates that large oil companies will need to cover small refineries regarding blending credits. A small than anticipated plan could impact corn demand for biofuels. The lack of clarity regarding policy and recent negative tone may help limit gains in the corn market.
• USDA will release the September WASDE on Friday, February 12. Expectations are for corn yield to be reduced to 186.0 bu/a according to analyst survey. The 2025-26 corn ending stocks should also be reduced slightly with demand adjustments to near 2.000 bb.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower for the second consecutive day with the November soybeans down 6 cents to $10.25-1/4 while March lost 5 cents to $10.61. October soybean meal was down $4.20 to $283.50 and October soybean oil gained 0.54 cents to 50.47 cents.
• The soybean market is trying to balance the demand and the potentially tightening supply narrative in the market. Increased news media regarding the lack of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans is trying to outweigh the dry weather forecast and a shrinking potential crop going into Friday’s USDA Report
• Policy uncertainty is adding headwinds. The White House is reviewing a plan that would shift some waived blending obligations onto major oil companies, a move that could limit soybean oil’s role in biodiesel.
• Estimates for the WASDE report see 25/26 ending stocks slightly lower to unchanged at 287 mb while 24/25 ending stocks are expected to be unchanged. Yield is projected 0.4 bpa lower at 53.2 bpa. There is a possibility that the USDA lowers export demand to account for the lack of Chinese purchases.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures were down again today, closing 5-1/4 cents lower in December Chicago to 515, while Kansas City lost 3-1/4 cents to 507, and MIAX was down 4-1/2 cents at 569-1/2. A general lack of fresh friendly news, as well as rising Russian and southern hemisphere crop production estimates have been limiting upside for wheat.
• IKAR increased their estimate of Russian wheat production from 86 mmt to 87 mmt, which is now closer in line with SovEcon’s 87.2 mmt forecast. In addition, IKAR raised their Russian wheat export estimate by 1 mmt to 44 mmt.
• This morning, news outlets reported that Poland shot down Russian drones that entered their airspace. This has raised concern about broader conflict developing in the region, as Poland is a NATO member. However, Poland’s prime minister indicated that while this was a provocation, they are not likely on the brink of war.
• LSEG commodities research has kept their estimate of Canadian 25/26 wheat production unchanged from their last estimate at 35.0 mmt. And while they also reported that although harvest is going well, rains coming in about 5-10 days could slow the current pace.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures shift lower with the October contract losing 36 cents to close at $16.56.
• Spot cheese gained 0.1250 cents today to close up at $1.67375/lb. Spot whey gave back 1 cent to close down at $0.590/lb.
• Spot butter closed down today losing 4 cents closing at $1.9650/lb. While spot powder also dropped losing 1.25 cents to close at $1.1875/lb.
• Class IV milk futures continue to drop with Octover closing down 51 cents to close at $16.24.
• Spot butter hit its lowest level since 2021 closing below $2.00/lb at $1.9650/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg