TFM Morning Update 09-12-2025

CORN

Corn is trading very quietly to start the day ahead of the supply and demand report sat 11am. December corn is up 1 cent at $4.20-1/2 while March is up 1-1/4 to $4.38-1/2.
Trade estimates for Today’s report peg U.S. 2024/25 corn carryout at 1.311 billion bu (vs USDA’s 1.305) and 2025/26 at 2.011 billion bu (vs USDA’s 2.117), with crop size seen at 16.516 billion bu, below the USDA’s August estimate of 16.742.
Yesterday’s export sales report saw corn sales increase 21.3 million bushels for 25/26 and none for 26/27. Last week’s export shipments to 27.1 mb were below the 55.3 mb needed. Top buyers were to Mexico, Japan, and unknown.

Soybeans are unchanged to slightly higher with the November contract up 3/4 cent to $10.34-1/4 while March is up 1/4 cent to $10.68-1/4. October soybean meal is down $1.20 to $284.90 and October soybean oil is up 0.35 cents to 51.43 cents.
Yesterday’s export sales report saw an increase of 19.9 mb for the 25/26 marketing year and none for 26/27. Top buyers were unknown, Taiwan, and Indonesia. Last week’s shipments of 8.6 mb were well below the 32.8 mb needed.
Trade estimates for today’s report slightly undercut USDA figures, with U.S. 2024/25 soybean carryout seen at 328 million bu (vs USDA 330), 2025/26 at 288 million bu (vs USDA 290), and production at 4.271 billion bu (vs USDA 4.292).

All three wheat classes are weaker this morning with December Chicago wheat down 1 cent to $5.20-1/2 and December KC wheat down 3/4 cents to $5.09-1/4.
Trade estimates for today’s report put 2025/26 U.S. wheat carryout at 865 million bu (vs USDA 869) and global ending stocks at 261.1 mmt (vs USDA 260.1).
Yesterday’s export sales report saw wheat sales with an increase of 11.2 mb for the 25/26 marketing year. Top buyers were Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines.

Amanda Brill