CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures ended Thursday with moderate gains, supported by firm demand tone and short covering ahead of Friday’s WASDE. December corn gained 2 ¾ to 419 ¾ and March added 2 ¾ to 437 ¼.
• The USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending September 4, the USDA reported new sales of 21.3 mb for the 2025-26 crop year. In addition, a total of 41.2 mb was rolled from the 2024-25 marketing year into the new marketing year. Total corn commitments for the 2025-26 marketing year are at 890 mb, up 69% from last year.
• The Brazil ag agency, CONAB, released their September crop production forecast on Thursday morning. The agency raised their corn production estimate for the 2024-25 marketing year to a record 139.7 MMT, up 2.7 MMT from last month and over 24 MMT above last year.
• USDA’s drought monitor reported expanding dryness across the eastern and southern Corn Belt, with 13% of corn acres now in drought versus 9% last week—likely capping production potential this fall.
• USDA will release the September WASDE on Friday, February 12. Expectations are for corn yield to be reduced to 186.0 bu/a according to analyst survey. The 2025-26 corn ending stocks should also be reduced slightly with demand adjustments to near 2.000 bb.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybean futures bounced off of support on Thursday ahead of Friday’s USDA WASDE report. November soybeans added 8-3/4 cents to close at 1034. October soybean meal added 2.60 to close at 286.10 and October soybean oil gained 0.61 cents to close at 51.08 cents.
• Soybean oil futures extended gains Thursday, following Wednesday’s rumors that the Trump administration may require large crude oil refineries to cover 50% of waived small-blender obligations. A decision isn’t expected until late October.
• China has booked nearly all of its October soybean needs and about 15% of November with higher-priced Brazilian supplies. If a U.S.-China trade deal emerges soon, their purchases of U.S. soybeans could be delayed, creating potential logistical bottlenecks domestically.
• WASDE estimates project 2025/26 ending stocks steady to slightly lower at 287 mb, with 2024/25 stocks seen unchanged. Yield is pegged 0.4 bpa lower at 53.2, while USDA may trim export demand to reflect weak Chinese buying.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat finished the session higher across all three classes, led by Chicago contracts. December Chi gained 6-1/2 cents to 521-1/2, while KC was up 3 at 510, and MIAX was up 2 at 571-1/2. Higher equity markets today may have spilled over some positive influence to commodities, with most of the grain complex positing higher closes.
• USDA reported 11.2 mb in 2025/26 wheat export sales, with no new 2026/27 sales. Weekly shipments totaled 13.1 mb, below the 16.7 mb pace needed to reach the 875 mb export goal. Total 2025/26 commitments stand at 467 mb, up 19% from last year.
• The average pre-report estimate for U.S. 25/26 wheat carryout comes in at 862 mb, down from 869 mb in August. However, world ending stocks are expected to increase slightly. For 24/25 the trade is looking for 263.1 mmt vs 262.7 mmt last month, and for 25/26 is looking for 260.8 mmt vs 260.1 mmt. U.S. production numbers will be updated at the end of the month on the Small Grains Summary report.
• In an update from CONAB, the Brazilian wheat production forecast was decreased from 7.8 mmt to 7.54 mmt. This is largely due to a smaller planted area, and is despite expectations for improved yields.
• As of September 9, USDA reported spring wheat acres in drought unchanged at 13%. Winter wheat drought coverage rose to 38%, up 4% on the week but still well below 57% at this time last year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• NO DAIRY REPORT TODAY.

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Author

Amanda Brill