TFM Midday Update 9-11-2025

CORN

The corn market is trading mixed ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report, with expectations of a moderate decline in yield and production.
Tomorrow’s USDA report is expected to show corn yield at 186.2 BPA, down from 188.8 BPA in last month’s estimate. New crop ending stocks are projected at 2.011 billion bushels, a decrease from last month’s 2.117 billion.
The Rosario Grain Exchange has raised its 2024/25 Argentine corn production estimate by 1.5 million metric tons to 50 million, and its 2025/26 forecast to 61 million, driven by a 10% increase in planted area.
Early yield estimates from Missouri to southern Illinois have been disappointing, as a dry finish and disease pressure have taken a toll on crop performance.

Soybeans are trading higher at midday, seeing a modest bounce ahead of tomorrow’s USDA supply and demand report, with expectations that soybean yield will be revised slightly lower compared to last month’s estimate.
Last month’s USDA supply and demand report pegged soybean yield at 53.6 bushels per acre (BPA), but this month’s estimate is expected to dip slightly to 53.3 BPA due to drier weather in key growing regions and the impact of disease-affected crops.
Trade tensions with China remain a major concern for the soybean market, with tomorrow’s new crop export figures expected to provide key insight into whether the USDA anticipates progress toward a deal. At this time last year, China had already booked 12–13 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for the September–November shipment window. So far this year, no purchases have been reported.
The Rosario Grain Exchange expects Argentine’s bean production in 25/26 to be down 2.5 million tons from the current season to 47 million tons, on a 4.3% drop in planted area.

Wheat is trading mixed at midday, as the market lacks fresh headlines and expectations remain low for any major surprises in tomorrow’s USDA report.
With abundant global supply and competitively low prices from Russia and the EU, U.S. wheat is likely to struggle to rally until global supplies tighten and prices in those regions begin to rise.
Expana raised its EU soft red wheat (SRW) harvest estimate overnight to a record high of 136.1 million metric tons, up 3.3 million from its previous projection. Russia’s wheat crop estimate was also revised higher, adding further pressure to the global supply outlook.

Lauren VandenLangenberg