CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures retreated Monday, with December down 6 ¾ to 423 ¼ and March off 6 ¼ to 441, as the market continued digesting Friday’s USDA report.
• In principle, the USDA report on Friday was still holding a bearish tone, despite the bullish reaction in prices. The addition of 1.5 million acres and yield still at a record of 186.7 bu/a will have the U.S. producing a record corn crop. Despite the strong export demand, the supply side of the balance sheet will stay heavy as harvest progresses.
• Managed funds grew their net short position in the corn market on last week’s Commitment of Traders. Managed funds sold a net 8,400 contract and are still positioned in a net short of 99,929 contracts. Fund money flow likely reduced that position with the buying strength on Friday last week.
• USDA announced a flash export sale of corn this morning. Unknown destinations bought 148,971 MT (5.9 mb) of corn for the current marketing year (2025-26). This was the first flash sale of corn since September 4.
• Weekly export inspections were strong for the week ending September 11. For that week, the USDA reported inspections at 1.512 MMT (59.5 mb). This total was above expectations, and shipments for the start of the marketing year, September 1, are 106% over last year.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower giving back a portion of Friday’s gains. November soybeans lost 3-1/2 cents to close at $10.42-3/4 and March soybeans lost 3-3/4 cents to $10.76-1/2. October soybean meal lost $2.40 to $285.20 and October soybean oil gained 0.09 cents to close at 51.76 cents.
• Today’s Export Inspections report was supportive and above trade estimates with inspections for 25/26 totaling 29.6 million bushels. This puts total inspections at 39 mb, up 43% from the previous year. It should be noted that the USDA recently reported a sale to China two weeks ago, but this was an error as the purchase was actually made in January.
• Friday’s WASDE report was bearish with yield estimates revised slightly lower to 53.5 bpa but was above the average trade guess of 53.3 bpa. Soybean planted acreage was revised higher by 200,000 acres and export demand was revised slightly lower. Ending stocks for 25/26 were estimated at 300 mb, which was up from last month’s estimate of 290 mb.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 26,678 contracts, increasing their net short position to 14,714 contracts. They sold 12,465 contracts of bean oil, leaving them long 3,662 contracts and bought back 3,737 contracts of meal, leaving them short 85,785 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed in mixed fashion. December Chicago was up 1-1/2 cents to 525, MIAX was unchanged at 571-3/4, and Kansas City declined 3/4 cent to 514. All things considered, wheat held its ground fairly well today, after Friday’s WASDE report indicated that major global wheat producers had harvest estimates revised their higher by 9.3 mmt (in total) compared to the August report.
• Weekly wheat inspections at 27.7 mb were above expectations, bringing the 25/26 inspections total to 289 mb, up 12% from last year. Inspections are running above the USDA’s estimated pace. Currently, they are forecasting 25/26 exports at 900 mb, up 9% from the year prior.
• According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values finished last week at $225/mt on a FOB basis, down $3 from the week before. These declining offers out of Russia have helped to keep pressure on US wheat prices.
• In a report from Reuters, Russia is attempting to avoid sanctions by bartering. Reportedly, Chinese cars were traded for Russian wheat. It is not clear how much of either product was exchanged, or what the values of the grain and cars were.
• Ukrainian grain exports have reached 5.2 mmt since the season began on July 1. This represents a 40% decline from the 8.6 mmt shipped in a similar timeframe last year. Of the total, wheat accounted for 3.55 mmt, which is down 24% year over year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were two-sided today, but the second month October contract did gain 16 cents to push to $16.48.
• Spot cheese was 0.1250 cents higher on 9 loads trade while whey was up a penny to pop back over $0.60/lb.
• Class IV futures were all lower once again as butter fell 4 cents and spot powder fell a half cent.
• The only fundamental update for this week will be the second Global Dairy Trade Auction taking place tomorrow morning. 

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Author

Brandon Doherty