TFM Midday Update 09-17-2025

CORN

  • Corn futures are under pressure and trading lower at midday as increased harvest activity weighs on prices.
  • LSEG has lowered its EU corn production estimate by 2.4% to 57.5 million tons, citing reduced output in Romania and Bulgaria. French production was also trimmed slightly to 13.6 million tons, down from 13.9 million.
  • Brazil’s ethanol output is projected to rise by 17% over the next two years, while U.S. weekly ethanol production is expected to decline.
  • Ethanol production slipped to 310 million gallons for the week ending Friday, September 12, down from 325 million gallons the previous week, marking the lowest output in 17 weeks. Despite the weekly decline, production was still up 0.6% year-over-year. Approximately 105 million bushels of corn were used in the production process.

SOYBEANS

  • Soybeans turned lower at midday as traders begin positioning ahead of Friday’s scheduled call with China, and in part by a modest rebound in the U.S. dollar. Soybean meal is trading higher, while soybeans and soybean oil are under pressure and trading lower.
  • U.S. soybean prices remain well below those of South American origins, helping to keep U.S. soybeans competitive on the global market.
  • Crops across Brazil are expected to see some relief in the coming weeks, as the dry season nears its end and showers are forecast to begin next week.
  • In the U.S., the central and western Corn Belt are forecast to receive showers throughout the next week, accompanied by temperatures that remain above seasonal norms.

WHEAT

  • Wheat prices are under pressure and trading lower at midday, as updated forecasts point to increased global output.
  • LSEG further raised its Russian wheat production estimate to 84.7 million tons overnight, up 1.5% from its previous forecast, citing better yields in key producing regions. The group also increased its Australian production estimate by 4.2%, to 33.7 million tons.
  • Despite another decline in the U.S. dollar, wheat prices in Russia and France continue to trade below those in the U.S. market.

Author

Lauren VandenLangenberg

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