CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures trended lower on the session as the U.S. dollar recovered of recent lows, and early harvest pressure is weighing on basis and the cash market. December corn lost 3 cents to 423 ¾, and the March contract slipped 3 cents to 441 ½.
• USDA released weekly export sales data on Thursday morning. For the week ending September 11, USDA reported new sales of 48.5 mb of corn for the marketing year. Mexico and South Korea were the top buyers of U.S. corn last week. Total export sales are up 98% over last year, and one of the best starts to the marketing year over the past 25 years.
• The weekly drought monitor map continues to show the growth of drought across the Corn Belt. Acres of corn ground in drought rose to 25% this week, up from 13% last week. The dry conditions are expected to impact final yields as the crop was rushed to maturity.
• Early harvest activity is putting pressure on the cash market and basis levels. As producers deliver early bushels, storage availability remains tight in some areas, and the cash market is beginning to reflect the impact of fresh supplies.
• The U.S. dollar has rallied off recent lows in reaction to the Fed interest rate cut on Wednesday. The dollar sold off aggressively in preparation of the rate cut, but has since corrected, pressuring grain prices.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower for a second consecutive day over concerns for a lack of a Chinese trade deal. November soybeans lost 6-1/4 cents to $10.37-1/2, while March lost 6-1/2 cents to $10.71-1/2. October soybean meal lost $0.90 to $283 and October soybean oil led the complex lower with a loss of 0.67 cents at 50.57 cents.
• Today’s Export Sales report was middle of the road for soybeans with an increase of 33.9 million bushels for 25/26 and 0.1 mb for 26/27. Top buyers were to Egypt, Mexico, and Spain. China has not purchased U.S. soybeans since January 22. Last week’s export shipments of 30.8 mb were below the 32.1 mb needed each week to meet USDA expectations.
• Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 7.53 mmt in the month of September, which would compare to 7.43 mmt the previous month. Brazilian crush estimates have been raised by 0.7% to 58.5 mmt for 2025 according to ANEC.
• The EPA on Tuesday issued a co-proposal to reallocate either 50% or 100% of small refinery exemptions for 2023–25, while also revising RVOs for 2026–27. A higher reallocation means more soybean oil demand for biofuels.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed lower across the board today, pressured by a sharp rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index and weaker closes in both corn and soybean markets. Additionally, rising global production forecasts weighed on the wheat complex. The December contracts of Chicago and Kansas City lost 4 and 6-1/4 cents respectively, to 524-1/4 and 510.
• The USDA reported an increase of 13.9 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26, along with an increase of 0.4 mb for 26/27. Shipments last week amounted to 28.5 mb, which was well above the 17.1 mb pace needed per week to reach their 900 mb export goal. Wheat sales commitments for 25/26 now total 481 mb, up 21% from last year.
• The International Grains Council raised its forecast for 2025/26 global wheat production by 8 mmt, bringing the total to 819 mmt. The upward revision is attributed to larger production estimates for Canada, Australia, and Russia. For reference, the USDA is using a figure of 816.2 mmt. Additionally, global consumption is expected to total 819 mmt, which would keep stocks unchanged at 270 mmt.
• Coceral, a European trade association, is estimating UK and EU combined soft wheat production at 147.4 mmt, an increase of 4.3 mmt from their July forecast.
• According to Chinese customs data, their August imports of wheat and wheat flour totaled 230,000 mt. This is down 44.8% year over year. Meanwhile, year to date imports reached only 2.6 mmt, which is down 75.2% year over year.
• A letter of intent, signed by U.S. Wheat Associates and the Taiwan Flour Miller’s Association, indicates that Taiwan has agreed to buy 3.6 mmt of U.S. wheat over the next three years. This would amount to about $1.3 billion in purchases between 2026 and 2029.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk closed mixed today as October gained 9 cents to close at $17.45 and November lost 3 cents closing down at $16.99.
• Spot cheese closed down 0.1250 cents at $1.66125/lb. Spot whey gained 2 cents closing up at $0.6300/lb.
• Spot butter posted losses today closing down 0.50 cents at $1.8050/lb. Spot powder remained unchanged at $1.1450/lb.
• Class IV milk lost some gains posted yesterday with October down 47 cents to close at $15.78.

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Author

Brandon Doherty