TFM Perspective 09-19-2025

 

 

Controlling What You Can Control

 

What’s Happened…

Regardless of what type of farmer you are, you can only control what you can control. Does that even make sense? It does. As a producer, you concentrate on what you need to do to grow the best crops or healthiest livestock you can. Your efforts and focus are required every step of the way along the production cycle. Marketing, however, is different. Marketing is always looking ahead, where decisions are made based on criteria today. In other words, marketing is attempting to control the future, shifting price risk and/or locking in gains.  

 

For some, marketing means taking on the role of a price taker, which is, in essence, a decision to do nothing (either by choice or circumstance) and accepting the price when your product is sold. This approach may have a wide variety of results. For practical purposes, we might say this approach will be exposed to extremes. Either selling it all at harvest was a good idea or a bad idea. Most producers, however, do wear a marketing hat. This means, in addition to concentrating on production, there is also a focus on managing price risk and opportunities. Sometimes these occur well in advance of production, and sometimes well after. For this article, we’ll describe it as managing inventory.

 

Why this is Important…

Inventory management/marketing decisions may determine the difference between good farmers and great farmers. For the farmer who is a price taker, the extremes are potentially very large. Few businesses act in this manner. Farming is a business. Great marketers educate themselves. They work hard to produce excellent crops or livestock and also work hard to be familiar with marketing tools, alternatives marketing strategies, and execution. They strive to make the best decisions, knowing there are no guarantees. Like a good football team, they know their playbook and implement when appropriate. Not every decision will be right, and not every play a football team runs will be right. Yet, like a well-coached team, consistently analyzing and executing will likely pay off. Some farmers recognize their time and talents may be best suited in production, and are willing to hire people to manage their marketing. In either case, self-directed or hiring an outside source, these farmers are doing their best to control what they can with the most recent information and tools available to them. 

 

What can you do about it?

You will need to determine which marketing approach may best fit you and your operation. Are you willing to commit the time, energy, and discipline it may take to be a good marketer, or would you prefer to concentrate your efforts on production and pay someone to market for you? There isn’t a right or wrong answer. It might be trial and error until you find the right rhythm. Risk management and marketing will likely never take a day off. However, with consistent and strategic marketing, you might find you are able to take days off, knowing you are steadily prepared for market moves. 

 

Find out what works for you… 

Work with a professional to find the strategy or strategies that are best suited for your operation. Communication is important. Ask critical questions and garner a full comprehension of consequences and potential rewards before executing. The idea is to make good decisions for the operation and less emotionally-charged responses to market moves, which are always dynamic.   

 

 

About the Author: With the wisdom of 30 years at Total Farm Marketing and a following across the Grain Belt, the Grain Belt, Bryan Doherty is deeply passionate about his clients, their success, and long-term, fruitful relationships. As a senior market advisor and vice president of brokerage solutions, Doherty lives and breathes farm marketing. He has an in-depth understanding of the tools and markets, listens, and communicates with intent and clarity to ensure clients are comfortable with the decisions.

 

The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Individuals acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this report. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Examples of seasonal price moves or extreme market conditions are not meant to imply that such moves or conditions are common occurrences or likely to occur. Futures prices have already factored in the seasonal aspects of supply and demand. No representation is being made that scenario planning, strategy or discipline will guarantee success or profits. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing. Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services, LLC is an insurance agency and an equal opportunity provider. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. SP Risk Services LLC and Stewart-Peterson Inc. are wholly owned by Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. unless otherwise noted, services referenced are services of Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. Presented for solicitation. 

 

 

Author

Bryan Doherty

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