TFM Midday Update 09-19-2025

CORN

Corn continues to trade higher at midday, supported by positive export sales and a morning flash sale. December corn is up at $4.25 ½, while March futures are gaining as well, trading at $4.42 ¼.
Weekly U.S. corn exports remain strong but are slipping from the elevated levels seen earlier this summer, as South American competition intensifies and the U.S. is no longer the lowest-cost origin.
USDA confirms the sale of 206,460 tons of U.S. corn for delivery to unknown destinations for the 25/26 year.
The International Grains Council has lowered its global corn production estimate by 2 million tons, to 1.297 billion tons, due to downward revisions to the EU corn crop.

Soybeans are slipping in midday trade as news from today’s phone call between President Trump and China’s President Xi offers little optimism for an imminent trade deal. Soybeans and soybean oil are down, while soybean meal is seeing modest gains. November soybean futures are up $10.33 ¼.
CONAB has raised its estimate for Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean production to 177.67 million tons, up from 171.47 million tons previously. New crop soybean exports are now projected at 112 million tons, an increase from 106 million tons in the prior season.
Wet season rains are forecast across Brazil over the next week, which should help improve the currently dry planting conditions.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released yesterday, showed expanding drought conditions from Missouri eastward through Ohio. However, forecasted rains next week are expected to bring some relief to parts of the region.

Wheat is trading lower at midday as growing global supplies pressure prices, with crop estimates rising this week in Western Australia, Russia, and the EU. December wheat futures are down a few cents, currently at $5.22 ½.
The International Grains Council raised its global wheat production estimate by 8 million tons.
U.S. winter wheat area affected by drought increased 6% last week to 44%, compared to 58% at the same time last year, while drought conditions in HRS wheat remained steady at 13%.
Argentina’s wheat conditions declined 2% last week to 85% rated good to excellent, remaining well above last year’s level of 35% at this time.

Lauren VandenLangenberg