CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures finished the day with a modest rally to close with marginal gains on the session. A strong export demand tone was balanced against a strengthening U.S. dollar to limit gains. December corn gained 1 ½ cents to 425 ¾, while March corn added 1 ¼ cents to finish at 442 ¼.
• Argentina reinstated its export taxes on agricultural commodities Thursday morning after reaching the $7 billion export sales target for all agricultural goods. The corn export tax has returned to 9.5% on Argentine corn exports.
• Weekly export sales were strong again this week. For the week ending September 18, USDA recorded net sales of 1.923 MMT (75.7 mb). This total exceeded expectations, with Mexico once again the largest buyer of U.S. corn. With this pace, 2025–26 has marked the strongest start to export sales in modern recordkeeping history, surpassing the 2018–19 marketing year.
• President Trump made a statement on Thursday that his administration is working on a farmer aid package funded by tariff revenue collected by the U.S. While details remain limited, the package is expected to mirror those implemented during his first administration.
• The U.S. Dollar Index has continued to pressure grain futures prices. The dollar has traded higher in five of the last seven sessions and is currently at its highest level in a month.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher in continued rangebound trade which has seen November soybeans between $10.05 and $10.20 over the past few days. November gained 3-1/4 cents to $10.12-1/4 while March gained 2-3/4 cents to $10.47-1/2. October soybean meal lost $3.10 to $268.60 and October soybean oil gained 0.45 cents to 49.74 cents.
• Overnight, the Argentine government announced that the country’s $7 billion soybean export sales target had been met, and that the export tax on soybeans will return to 26% today, making U.S. soybeans more competitively priced by comparison.
• Today’s export sales report saw soybean sales within trade estimates with an increase of 26.6 million bushels for 25/26 and none for 26/27. Top buyers were Egypt, Taiwan, and Mexico. Last week’s export shipments of 18.8 mb were below the 32.1 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates.
• Cordonnier revised his estimates for the 2025/26 soybean yields, lowering them to 52 BPA, down 0.5 BPA from his previous estimate. This compares to the USDA’s last estimate of 53.5 BPA. While declining yields could provide support, the lack of Chinese purchases may offset this impact on ending stocks.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat had a strong session today, closing with a 7-1/2 cent gain for December Chicago to 527. Meanwhile, Dec Kansas City was up 5-1/2 cents to 512-1/4 and MIAX gained 5-1/4 cents to 573. This is impressive considering that the U.S. Dollar index surged higher again today, breaking above its 100 day moving average for the first time since August 1.
• Today’s big news was that Argentina reinstated its grain export tax after just two days, having already met its $7 billion export revenue target. This development provided a boost to the U.S. grain complex, along with reports that U.S. second-quarter GDP data came in stronger than expected.
• The USDA reported an increase of 19.8 mb in wheat export sales for 25/26. Shipments last week amounted to 32.9 mb which was well above the 16.8 mb pace needed to reach the USDA export goal of 900 mb. Wheat 25/26 sales commitments now total 501 mb, which is up 24% from last year.
• Global increases to the wheat crop may limit upside for U.S. futures. The European Commission raised its estimate of EU soft wheat production by 4.5 MMT, bringing the total to 132.6 MMT, and also increased the EU wheat export forecast by 4% to 31 MMT. Additionally, IKAR again revised its forecast for Russian production upward, this time by 0.5 MMT to 87.5 MMT, while raising its export estimate by 0.1 MMT to 44.1 MMT.
• According to an analyst poll, Australia may harvest its third-largest wheat crop on record. The median forecast for the nation’s wheat crop is 35.3 MMT, which would surpass last season’s total of 34.1 MMT and exceed the five-year average of 33.8 MMT. For reference, the all-time record was 40.5 MMT during the 2022/23 season.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures fell hard again today with October dropping 32 cents to settle at $16.72.
• Spot cheese fell slightly today to close at $1.64125/lb while whey was up a quarter cent to $0.6475/lb.
• Class IV futures found some buyers today with October up 4 cents and November gaining 20 cents; both finished at $14.75.
• Spot butter posted a rare up day with a gain of 2 cents, settling at $1.64/lb. Spot powder was up a quarter cent and enters Friday unchanged on the week.

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Author

John Heinberg