TFM Midday Update 9-26-2025

CORN

Corn prices are softer at midday as harvest activity advances. Continued expectations of record yields are adding pressure to the market. The December corn contract is down 3-4 cents at $4.22 ¼.
Argentina’s corn planting is 12.3% complete, while Brazil’s crop areas remain mostly dry through next week, with rainfall expected to return in days 11–15.
U.S. weather is expected to remain favorable for harvest over the next 10 days, with minimal rain and above-normal temperatures in the forecast.
The French corn harvest has progressed to 14% completion, while overall crop conditions remain unchanged from last week.

Soybeans are higher at midday, despite news that China secured 40 more cargos from Argentina for November shipment. The ongoing lack of U.S. export activity is fueling concern among traders over near-term demand prospects. November soybeans are trading 3 cents higher at $10.13 ¼.
Global soybean trade flows are shifting as China ramps up purchases from Argentina. This could reduce supplies available to Argentine crushers later in the season, potentially lowering crush rates and lifting global soybean meal and oil prices, given Argentina’s role as the world’s largest soy product exporter.
U.S. harvest weather looks ideal over the next week, with dry conditions across the Midwest and Plains and seasonally warm temperatures.
Weather models for Brazil indicate dry conditions will persist across major crop areas for the next 10 days. However, rainfall is expected to return during the 11–15 day outlook, offering potential relief to early planting efforts.

Wheat trades lower after yesterday’s rally, as ongoing harvests and abundant global supplies weigh on the market. December’s contract is down 7-6 cents at $5.19 ½.
While Russian wheat production estimates have generally been trending higher, SovEcon made its first cut to this season’s export outlook. The firm now expects shipments of 43.4 million tons, down slightly from the prior 43.7 million.
Over the past week, rainfall in central and northern Argentina has supported wheat development, providing much-needed moisture for crop growth.
The EU raised its total grain output estimate for the coming season to 284.2 MMT, up from 276.9 MMT last month.

Lauren VandenLangenberg