CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures ended the week with moderate losses, pressured by harvest progress, weak wheat markets, and a lack of fresh news. December corn lost 3 ¾ cents to 422, and March lost 3 ½ cents to 438 ¾. For the week, December corn traded 2 cents lower.
• Harvest reached 11% complete as of September 21. Progress is expected to accelerate with above-normal temperatures forecast into mid-October across much of the Corn Belt.
• Export demand remains strong with 2025/26 sales at 1.014 bb — up 75% from last year and already 34% of USDA’s 2.975 bb annual forecast
• Demand for U.S. corn on the export market should remain strong as global ending stocks are at their lowest since 2014, and U.S. supplies are forecasted to be well above the 5-year average, leaving the U.S. as the main source of global corn exports.
• Total acres of U.S. corn acreage in drought reached 26% percent on Thursday’s drought monitor map.  This is nearly triple the acres in drought from 2 weeks ago as areas of the Corn Belt remain dry, which could impact final yield totals.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher going into the weekend thanks to support from soybean meal, but prices have been rangebound all week. November soybeans gained 1-1/2 cents to $10.13-3/4 and March soybeans gained 1-1/2 cents to $10.49. October soybean meal gained $0.20 to $268.80 and October soybean oil lost 0.14 cents to 49.60 cents.
• China booked roughly 40 cargoes of Argentine soybeans during the temporary export tax suspension, but with the tax now reinstated, Argentina has met sales goals. Despite the absence of Chinese buying, U.S. soybean export sales have held steady.
• Dr. Cordonnier revised his estimates for the 2025/26 soybean yields, lowering them to 52 BPA, down 0.5 BPA from his previous estimate. This compares to the USDA’s last estimate of 53.5 BPA. While declining yields could provide support, the lack of Chinese purchases may offset this impact on ending stocks.
• For the week, November soybeans lost 11-3/4 cents with the bulk of those losses on Monday. March soybeans lost 11-3/4 cents as well. October soybean meal lost $14.10 and came close to the contract low from August. October soybean oil lost 0.43 cents and found support at the 200-day moving average earlier in the week.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat ended the week lower across all three classes, continuing a week of pressure from ample global supplies and sluggish export demand. Prices briefly rallied during Thursday’s trading session, but were unable to sustain gains. Overall, the market remains weighed down by ongoing uncertainty in trade and expectations of steady production levels. The December contract for Chicago is down 7-2 cents at $5.19.
• SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Russian grain exports in 2025/26 by 0.7%, bringing the total to 43.4 mmt. The revision reflects a slower-than-expected start to the export season, with shipments down 29% from July through September. In comparison, the USDA continues to project Russian exports at 45 mmt.
• President Trump has announced that revenue from tariffs will be used to fund a farmer aid package aimed at supporting producers affected by trade disputes. The package is expected to roll out in early 2026, pending approval.
• Rains in central and northern Argentina are supporting wheat development, while the EU has raised its total grain output for the upcoming season to 284.2 million tons, up from 276.9 million tons last month. The strength of global wheat production and overall supply continues to put pressure on markets.
• The USDA is set to release its Small Grains Summary this coming Tuesday. Wheat is expected to see only minor adjustments from previous estimates for the 2025/26 U.S. crop.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were able to capture back some of yesterday’s losses despite a drop in cheese. The November contract tacked on 21 cents to close at $16.39.
• Spot cheese was once again lower, dropping 1.75 cents to close out the week at $1.62375/lb. Whey was unchanged at $0.6475/lb.
• Class IV futures were able to get a boost as buyers stepped back into the butter market. December futures climbed 27 cents to go home at $15.52.
• Spot butter followed up yesterday’s gains with 8 additional cents on Friday. Spot butter now sits at $1.72/lb. Powder was slightly higher to $1.1550/lb.
• The August Cold Storage report showed cheese stocks up 1% from a year ago, while butter stocks were down 6% from last year.

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Author

Amanda Brill