TFM Morning Update 10-01-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower again and have now broken below all major moving averages. December corn is down 2-3/4 cents to $4.12-3/4 and March is down 3-1/4 to $4.29.
The government shut down at midnight last night as a spending bill could not be agreed upon. The news has pressured the US dollar, which could be friendly for grains in the future.
This week’s Crop Progress report saw corn ratings unchanged from last week at 66% good to excellent, while trade was anticipating a 1-2 point drop. This is above the 5-year average of 64% at this time. 71% of the crop is mature and 18% is harvested, down 2 points from this time a year ago.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning and have broken below the $10.00 level in November, below all major moving averages. November is down 5-1/2 cents to $9.96-1/4, and March is down 5-1/4 cents to $10.30-3/4. October soybean meal is down $2.80 to $262.90 and October soybean oil is up 0.17 cents to 49.04 cents.
According to US lawmakers, China will not buy US soybeans anytime soon following a briefing with the US ambassador to China.
Crop Progress saw soybean crop ratings improve one point from last week to 62% while trade estimates were expecting a decline. 79% of the of the crop is dropping leaves and 19% is harvested.

All three wheat classes are trading lower to start the day with December Chicago wheat down 5 cents to $5.03, KC wheat is down 6-1/4 cents to $4.91-1/2, and Minn wheat is down 1-3/4 cents to $5.61.
Yesterday’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report was bearish for wheat with stocks above the average trade guess at 2.12 billion bushels, compared to the trade average of 2.054 bb.
The Crop Progress Report saw that the winter wheat crop is now 34% planted, which is up from 20% last week but slightly behind from the 5-year average. 13% of the crop is emerged, which is up from 4% last week and is on par with the average.

Amanda Brill