CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures saw selling pressure to end the month of September as Tuesday’s USDA Grain Stocks report was heavier than anticipated. December corn futures lost 6 cents to 415 ½, and March futures lost 6 ½ cents to 432.
• The USDA released the Quarterly Grains Stocks report on Tuesday morning. Corn stocks as of September 1 were 1.532 BB, up from 1.352 BB in the September report and well above expectations. Despite the increase, corn stocks are still 13% below last year’s levels.
• The revision of grain stocks by 207 mb was the largest revision since the 2018-19 marketing year. Corn futures held support despite the higher supply forecast. Market analysts anticipated a large possible supply given the actions of the cash market over the past handful of months.
• The USDA slightly increased harvested acres on the 2024-25 corn crop, increasing production by 25 mb for last year. Quarterly usage was weaker than expected, reflecting lighter feed demand with smaller cattle and hog numbers.
• Corn harvest was 18% complete as of Sunday, September 28. This was slightly below expectations, and down 1% from the 5-year average. Favorable weather forecasts for the Corn Belt this week should move harvest along and harvest pressure will likely limit the market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply lower following a bearish Crop Progress report and a neutral Grain Stocks report. November lost 8-3/4 cents to $10.01-3/4 and managed to stay above $10.00 throughout the day. March soybeans lost 9-3/4 cents to $10.35-3/4, October soybean meal lost $2.40 to $265.70, and October soybean oil lost 0.24 cents to 48.87 cents.
• Today’s Grain Stocks report saw quarterly stocks for soybeans at 316 million bushels, which was slightly below the average guess of 322 mb but was within the range of estimates between 295 mb and 347 mb and was seen as neutral. Early yield reports are good so trade may believe that the stock number rises.
• Crop Progress saw soybean crop ratings improve one point from last week to 62% while trade estimates were expecting a decline. 79% of the crop is dropping leaves and 19% is harvested. Wet weather last week delayed harvest, but this week is expected to be dry.
• Yesterday’s Export Inspections report saw soybean inspections on the lower end of trade estimates. Soybean inspections totaled 21.8 million bushels for the week ending September 25. This put total inspections for 25/26 at 82.5 mb, which is up from 16% the previous year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat posted double-digit losses for both Chicago and Kansas City futures, with smaller losses for MIAX contracts. Dec Chi closed 11-1/2 cents lower at 508, KC was down 10-1/2 at 497-3/4, and MIAX lost 6-1/2 cents to 562-3/4. A combination of negative report data, a lower close for Matif wheat futures, and the increasing likelihood of a government shutdown all weighed on the wheat complex today.
• USDA pegged September 1 wheat stocks at 2.120 bb, above the high end of pre-report estimates and up from 1.992 bb last year. All-wheat production for 2025/26 came in at 1.985 bb, also above expectations, versus 1.927 bb in August and 1.971 bb last year. Winter wheat output totaled 1.402 bb, up 3% from 2024.
• Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report indicated that the U.S. winter wheat crop is now 34% planted, which is down 3% from last year and 2% from the five-year average pace. Additionally, 13% of the crop is emerged, which is in line with last year, and 1% above the five-year average.
• Brazilian domestic wheat prices are said to be falling, largely pressured by their new crop harvest. According to CONAB, an estimated 23.2% of the planted wheat area in Brazil has been harvested as of September 20. Additionally, data from Secex indicates that Brazil’s September wheat imports through the first two weeks of September totaled about 293,450 mt, down 50% versus September of 2024.
• Poland’s statistics office has increased their estimate of their country’s wheat production from 12.8 mmt to 13.4 mmt. Furthermore, the total Polish grain crop is estimated at 37.1 mmt.
• According to Russia’s economic development minister, Russia is working with China to lift restrictions on imports of Russian winter wheat and barley, among other goods. Both countries signed an agreement in May regarding the promotion and mutual protection of investment. Trade between Russia and China exceeded $244 billion last year, and could increase if these restrictions are eliminated.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Cheese buyers are back in the market as it looks like once again spot cheese may have held support at $1.60/lb. This would be the sixth time since Dec ’24 that level has held and led to a demand-led rally.
• The rally in cheese has supported nearby Class III. Oct, Nov, and Dec milk have put together three up days, breaking back over the 20-day moving average.
• A 5c down day for spot butter kept pressure on the Class IV trade Tuesday. October fell 14c to $14.89 while November fell 22c to $15.20.
• Spot whey held steady at $0.6475/lb, and still sits at its best level since January. Whey is the only dairy product currently in an uptrend.
• Tuesday was the last trading day for September 2025 dairy futures. The contracts will officially settle tomorrow and October will move into the front month spot.
• The USDA will release its Dairy Products report on Friday, giving an update on cheese and butter production for August.

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Author

John Heinberg