TFM Morning Update 10-03-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly lower this morning. December corn futures are down 1/2 cent to 421-1/4 and March futures are down 3/4 cent to 437-1/4.
Although the October WASDE report is unlikely to be released next week due to the government shutdown, private analysts continue to release corn yield projections. Two major firms have lowered estimates below the September forecasts, reinforcing the market’s expectation of declining yields that would likely have been reflected in the next WASDE.
Strong export demand is expected to support corn cash prices as new bushels enter the pipeline. With government data unavailable, the cash market will be the key driver for corn futures.

Soybean futures have started the day lower with November futures down 2 cents to 1021-3/4 and January futures down 2-1/4 cents to 1039-1/2.
The soybean market continues to experience support from President Trump’s tweet indicating he intends to make soybeans a major topic of discussion when he meets with the Chinese president in four weeks.
StoneX raised its soybean yield estimate by 0.7 bpa to 53.9 bpa, lifting production by 69 mb to 4.326 bb. This is 25 mb above USDA’s September WASDE estimate.

Wheat has started the day relatively quiet. December Chicago wheat futures are down 1/2 cent to 514-1/4. December KC wheat is unchanged at 499, and December MPLS wheat is unchanged at 5.61.
Export sales data remain unavailable amid the U.S. government shutdown, and the October 9 WASDE report is at risk if the closure persists.
Ukraine’s agriculture ministry now estimates 2026 winter wheat plantings at 5.2 million hectares, up 9% from its prior outlook, as farmers shift acres away from corn and sunflowers following recent drought.

Matt Mattke