CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market saw follow-through buying led by strength in the soybean market as corn futures finished with moderate gains. December corn gained 5 ¼ cents to close at 421 ¾, while March Added 5 ¼ to 438.
• The government shutdown continues to limit market information, delaying weekly export sales, daily flash sales announcements, and likely next week’s WASDE report.
• Despite the lack of a WASDE report next week, private analyst groups have been releasing their expectations for corn yield. Two large analyst firms lowered their corn yield estimates below the September forecasts. This keeps the trend of a lower corn yield overall in the market’s mind, which would have been the expectations for next week’s WASDE report.
• Harvest is advancing quickly across the Corn Belt with warm weather aiding maturity, though harvest pressure is expected to cap rallies.
• The strong demand tone and export movement of corn should be reflected in the cash market, supporting cash prices as fresh bushels move into the pipeline. With the lack of government information, the cash market will be the driver of the corn futures prices.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply higher for the second consecutive day following President Trump’s bullish tweet yesterday, stating that some tariff income could go to farmers and that soybean exports would be a major point of conversation when he meets with President Xi in a month.
• November soybeans gained 10-3/4 cents to $10.23-3/4 and are just below the 50-day moving average, while March beans are up 10 cents to $10.56-1/4. October soybean meal gained $6.60 to $271.30 and were a major driver of the soy complex today, while October soybean oil 0.07 cents 49.82.
• Following the excitement of yesterday, speculative traders are believed to have purchased 30,000 contracts of soybeans, 6,500 of soybean oil, and 3,000 of soybean meal. Funds are estimated to remain short around 12,000 soybean contracts, however.
• StoneX has increased their soybean yield estimate by 0.7 bpa to 53.9 bpa and raised their production figure by 69 mb to 4.326 bb. This comes in about 25 mb higher than the USDA’s estimate on the September WASDE report.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat rallied today but was perhaps more of a follower of corn and beans than a leader. December Chicago gained 5-1/2 cents to 514-3/4, Kansas City up 3-1/2 at 499, and MIAX increased 3-1/2 to 560-1/2. While a higher close for Matif wheat was supportive to the U.S. market, the gains today were likely follow-through on yesterday’s bullish reversals.
• Export sales data was unavailable due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. The October 9 WASDE report is also in jeopardy if the shutdown continues.
• The Ukrainian agriculture ministry is estimating that the winter wheat planted area will increase 9% from their previous estimate (for the 2026 harvest) to 5.2 million hectares. Reportedly, farmers will switch away from corn and sunflower plantings due to drought over the past few months.
• Spec traders were estimated to have purchased around 3,000 contracts of Chicago wheat futures yesterday. That may have increased with today’s rally; however, their total net short position is still believed to be near 100,000 contracts.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• In the past four sessions, the US block/barrel average cheese price has added 12.375c and has closed green each day. This has brought some confidence back to the market.
• Cheese buyers could be re-entering the market ahead of the Holidays and Super Bowl. This is usually the time of year cheese can get a sharp, quick rally.
• Class III futures were down nearly 45c at the lows during the morning session, but rebounded after yet another up day for cheese.
• Spot butter jumped 2.50c on 8 loads traded to $1.75/lb. February Class IV added 36c to $16.36.
• The USDA was set to release the next Dairy Products report tomorrow, but the government shutdown may delay the release.

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Author

Brandon Doherty