TFM Midday Update 10-06-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly lower to start the week as harvest progresses rapidly across the U.S. December corn futures are currently down a penny trading at 418. July corn futures are currently down 1-1/2 cents trading at 450-3/4.
Several private analysts have trimmed their U.S. corn yield estimates over the past week, with most now centered near 185 bpa. The scheduled USDA WASDE report will not be released due to the government shutdown, meaning the next official update on crop size will likely come in November.
U.S. corn harvest is estimated to be about one-third complete as of Sunday. While some showers are moving through the Corn Belt early this week, forecasts call for warmer and drier-than-normal conditions over the next 10 days, which should support continued harvest progress.

Soybean futures are slightly lower to start the week as optimism around a U.S./China trade deal regarding soybeans is waning. November soybeans are currently down 2 cents trading at 1016-1/4. March soybeans are down 1-1/4 cents currently trading at 1051.
Soybean planting is underway in Brazil, with Mato Grosso — the country’s largest producing state — estimated to be 15% planted, well ahead of the five-year average pace of 6%.
With no official Crop Progress report this afternoon due to the government shutdown, harvest progress estimates are based on prior data. As of September 28, harvest was 19% complete, and the recent stretch of dry weather likely pushed progress past the 50% mark.

Wheat futures are mixed at midday. December Chicago wheat futures are down a ½ cent trading at 514-1/2. December KCBOT wheat futures are down 1-1/2 cents trading at 495-1/2. December Spring wheat futures are up 1 cent trading at 560-3/4.
The expanding global wheat supply from major exporters continues to pressure the market near contract lows. Recent production estimate increases from Russia, the EU, Canada, and Argentina — along with expectations for a higher Australian crop on favorable weather — have kept wheat on the defensive.
U.S. winter wheat planting likely surpassed the halfway mark over the weekend, though official progress data will not be released this afternoon due to the ongoing government shutdown.

Keegan Madigan