TFM Midday Update 10-8-2025

CORN

Corn futures are mixed at midday as the harvest season enters its peak. Over the next two weeks, a surge in corn supply is expected as freshly harvested grain flows into the market. December corn is up at $4.20 ½.
Ethanol production rebounded to 315 million gallons for the week ending October 3, up from 293 million the previous week and 3.2% higher than the YA. This week’s production came in above expectations.
Corn planting in Brazil is approximately 40% complete, keeping pace with seasonal expectations.
Cordonnier lowered his U.S. corn yield estimate to 181 BPA, down 1 bushel from his previous forecast.

Soybeans are trading higher at midday across the entire soy complex, supported by optimism surrounding upcoming U.S.-China trade talks. President Trump referenced the meeting with President Xi again yesterday, boosting market sentiment. November soybeans are up at midday at $10.25 ¾.
Port fees on certain Chinese vessels entering U.S. ports are still scheduled to take effect on October 14, potentially undermining any trade optimism between the U.S. and China and putting downward pressure on soybean markets.
The U.S. farm aid package is expected to be announced this week. Its release was delayed due to the government shutdown, and it is anticipated to total $10–$15 billion, including support for soybean producers affected by tariffs.

Wheat markets are trading higher at midday. Despite pressure from the rallying U.S. dollar, the market is finding support from recent news out of Russia. December wheat is up at 5.07 1/4.
Russian exports are starting to pick up, and the weaker euro is improving the EU’s export competitiveness.
Russia announced this morning that a President Trump broken cease-fire deal appears to have fallen through, potentially prompting the U.S. and EU to intensify pressure on Russia.

Lauren VandenLangenberg