TFM Midday Update 10-10-2025

CORN

Corn continues to trade lower at midday, as traders remain uncertain whether export demand is improving amid the lack of official export data. That uncertainty is contributing to additional downward pressure on the corn market during the government shutdown. December corn is trading lower at 4.13 ¼ at midday.
The corn market hit a new low for the week, pressured by weakness in the soybean market and comments from President Trump regarding lower gasoline prices — a factor that could also lead to lower crude oil values.
Argentina’s soybean planting is 25.6% complete, up from 19% at this time last year. The total planted area is expected to increase by 700,000 hectares compared to a year ago.
The U.S. harvest continues to make rapid progress, supported by favorable weather over the next five days. However, above-normal precipitation is expected across the western Corn Belt during days 6–10 of the forecast period.

Pressure continues on the soybean market at midday, driven by weakness in soybean oil following an unexpected rise in September Malaysian palm oil stocks — now at a two-year high. The entire soy complex trades lower at midday. November soybeans are trading lower at 10.04 ¾ at midday.
The soybean market is showing some skepticism after President Trump announced yesterday that he expects China to begin purchasing U.S. soybeans following the November meeting. However, he also indicated that if no progress is made, he is likely to increase pressure — a statement the market interpreted as a bearish signal.
The lack of official reports during the government shutdown has left soybeans more sensitive to headlines and technical factors. Meanwhile, China reportedly purchased up to six cargoes of Brazilian soybeans yesterday, following the end of its Golden Week holiday, putting additional downward pressure on the soybean market.

Wheat prices continue to move toward new contract lows, pressured by another increase in Russia’s crop estimates. December wheat is down midday at 4.98 ½.
SovEcon raised its Russian wheat production estimate to 87.8 million tons, up from 87.2 million tons previously. Meanwhile, Russia indicated it may increase its export quota early next year.
Brazil’s wheat harvest is beginning in Rio Grande do Sul, the country’s largest wheat-producing state.
French SRW wheat is now 5% planted compared to 8% a year ago.

Lauren VandenLangenberg