CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures ended the week with selling pressure as harvest pressure and large supplies originally pressured the market. A late morning announcement by President Trump regarding China and trade only added to the selling pressure. December corn lost 5 ¼ cents to 413, and March fell 5 cents to 429.  For the week, December corn lost 6 cents.
• The technical outlook for corn weakened, with the December contract posting its lowest close since August 28. The combination of a soft technical picture and large harvest-time supplies may keep pressure on the market into next week.
• President Trump announced that trade tensions with China have increased, and the possible meeting between himself and President XI of China may not happen at the end of the month. In addition, the administration weighs ideas for “massive” new tariffs on Chinese imports.
• Broader markets reflected a “risk-off” tone for the second consecutive session, as rising trade tensions fueled volatility and prompted profit-taking.
• Temperatures through the middle of the month are expected to remain above normal, but precipitation will be more scattered from west to east.  The forecast should allow harvest to move at a good pace.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed the week lower across the entire complex, on weakness in bean oil on an unexpected rise in September Malaysian palm oil stocks reaching a two-year high and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the outcomes of the upcoming U.S.-China meeting in early November. November soybeans are down 15-½ cents at 10.06-¾.
• China continues to show little interest in U.S. soybeans. After returning from their Golden Week holiday, Chinese crushers purchased roughly half a dozen cargoes of Brazilian soybeans for December shipment. This development is concerning for traders, as the window for U.S. soybeans to meet China’s import needs narrows ahead of the South American harvest in early 2026. Adding further uncertainty, President Trump indicated Friday that the planned meeting with China’s President Xi later this month may no longer take place.
• The U.S. soybean harvest is estimated to be 39% complete and is expected to reach 58% by the end of the upcoming weekend. These estimates come from private analysts, as the USDA is not releasing reports during the government shutdown.
• The area of U.S. soybeans affected by drought increased by 2%, reaching 39%, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The five-day outlook indicates continued dry conditions, followed by above-average precipitation during days 6 to 10.
• The continued absence of fundamental data — following a second week without export sales reports or commitments of trader positions — is keeping the market in a broad near-term range until the government reopens. In this environment, prices are increasingly sensitive to headlines and technical signals.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower in sympathy with corn and soybeans. A general risk off session was established after news outlets reported increasing tensions between the US and China. All three US wheat classes established new contract lows – December Chicago lost 8 cents at 498-1/2, Kansas City was down 6-3/4 to 483, and MIAX closed 5-1/4 lower at 551-3/4. Reports indicate China will begin imposing port fees on U.S. vessels next week, while President Trump may raise tariffs on Chinese imports. Uncertainty also surrounds the anticipated meeting between the two nations’ leaders later this month, which could delay progress on trade negotiations.
• Also bearish today was the fact that SovEcon once again increased their estimate of 2025 Russian wheat production, this time by 600,000 mt to 87.8 mmt. This compares to the most recent USDA forecast of 85 mmt. In related news, the Russian agriculture ministry reduced the wheat export tax by 35% to 318.6 Rubles/mt through October 21, with the goal of increasing export demand.
• As reported by Interfax, Russia might increase their grain export quota in 2026 to a level above this year’s. The 2025 wheat export quota, in particular, was 10.6 mmt. Their quotas are valid annually between February 15 through June 30. Additionally, Russia has reported collecting 130 mmt of grain so far, with wheat harvest having reached 91.5 mmt as of October 8; this is 6.5 mmt above last year.
• Since their export season began on July 1, Ukraine has shipped 7.2 mmt of grain through October 10. This is down 39% year over year. Of that total, wheat accounts for 5.12 mmt, which is down nearly 25% year over year.
• In Brazil, harvest is just beginning in the top-producing state of Rio Grande do Sul, estimated at 1% complete. About 58% of the crop is in the filling stage and 18% is mature. With 1.2 million hectares planted, production potential remains strong at this stage.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures were down double digits on the day, pressured by the cheese trade. November futures saw the largest loss of 43 cents to close at $16.21.
• Spot cheese fell 4.50 cents today to $1.7050/lb, down 7.50 cents total on the week. Whey went home half a cent higher at $0.6350/lb.
• Class IV futures were able to improve slightly but are still in the red for the week. November futures were up 17 cents to $14.35.
• Spot butter tacked on just 0.25 cents to close at $1.6050/lb while powder dipped 0.75 cents to $1.1275/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty