TFM Morning Update 10-14-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading unchanged to slightly lower this morning. December corn futures are down 1/4 cent to 410-1/2 and March futures are down 3/4 cent to 426-1/2.
Dalian corn futures hit new contract lows, pressured by expanding U.S. harvest and expectations that the final 30% of the U.S. harvest could strain storage and weigh on futures and basis.
The absence of key U.S. reports (October WASDE, export sales, CFTC) added to bearish sentiment; Brazil corn futures also declined on a stronger real. Trade estimates U.S. corn harvest at ~44% complete, with yields slightly below USDA’s 186.7 bpa; weaker feed demand could boost carryout toward 2.464 billion bu.

Soybean futures are lower this morning with November futures down 4-1/4 cents to 1003-1/2 and January futures down 4-1/4 cents to 1021.
The Nov/Jan spread widened to -18 as Dalian soy complex futures fell, pressured by lower crude oil and a lack of key U.S. reports, adding to bearish sentiment.
China’s new tariffs on U.S.-operated vessels increase the cost of U.S. soybeans, while U.S. harvest progress is estimated near 60% and some expect final yields below USDA’s 53.0 bpa. Trade sees potential for U.S. soybean exports to fall 435 million bu short of USDA’s 1.685 billion bu estimate.

Wheat futures are all lower this morning. December Chicago wheat futures are down 3-3/4 cents to 493. December KC wheat is down 3-1/2 cents to 477-3/4, and December MPLS wheat is down 1-1/4 to 5.5025.
The absence of the USDA October WASDE, export sales, and CFTC reports is bearish, with some expecting the missing data would have included upward revisions to Argentina, Russia, and Canada crops.
Russia’s 2026 wheat acres are expected to be down 6%, and its current export pace is lagging USDA’s 45.0 mmt estimate, implying an active Oct-Jan export window is needed to meet the goal. Trade estimates U.S. winter wheat plantings at 66% complete.

Matt Mattke