TFM Morning Update 10-17-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher this morning as harvest hits around the halfway mark. December futures are up 2-1/2 cents to $4.24-1/4 and are up 11 cents on the week. March corn is up 2-1/2 cents to $4.38.
Although with the government shutdown, USDA export sales are delayed indefinitely, estimates have still been released. Corn export sales as of October 9 are forecast to come in between 1,200k and 2,000k tons with an average estimate of 1,450k tons, which would compare to 2,226k a year ago.
Brazilian corn production for 25/26 is estimated between 128.9 and 148.2 mmt, with an average guess of 138.4 mmt as strong demand drives the expansion of acreage. This estimate is above the USDA’s most recent guess of 131 mmt.

Soybean futures are higher to start the day with November up 4-1/4 cents to $10.15 and is up 8-1/2 cents on the week. March soybeans are up 4-1/4 cents to $10.48, December soybean meal is up $2.90 to $279.80 and December bean oil is down 0.35 cents to 50.50 cents.
Estimates for the export sales report ending the week of October 9 see soybean sales in a range between 400k and 1,400k tons with an average estimate of 975k tons. This would compare to 1,703k a year ago.
The NOPA crush report for September showed US soybean crush topping estimates at 197.86 million bushels, which was up 4.2% from August and up 11.6% from September last year. Domestic demand is encouraging, given Chinese absence.

All three wheat classes are higher this morning with December Chicago wheat up 1-3/4 cents to $5.04-1/4, KC wheat is up 1-1/4 cents to $4.90, and Minn wheat is up 2-3/4 cents to $5.52-1/4.
Estimates for wheat export sales ending the week of October 9 see sales between 300k and 700k tons with an average guess of 538k tons. This would compare to 504k tons a year ago.
Russia reportedly sees their grain export potential for 25/26 at 50 mmt and has already harvested nearly 132 mmt of grain and 90 mmt of wheat with harvest 91% complete. Russia has also resumed exporting wheat to Indonesia after trade negotiations.

Amanda Brill