CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Selling pressure hit the corn market on Tuesday as failing to push through resistance triggered some long liquidation. A firmer U.S. dollar and a drop in gold futures also triggered some selling on the session. December corn lost 3 ½ cents to 419 ¾, and March lost 3 ¼ cents to 433 ¾.
• Two out of the past three sessions, corn futures reversed at the 425 price area and traded lower off that price point. The 425 price could be triggering some farmer selling. The weak technical closes could open the corn market to some additional selling going into tomorrow’s session.
• The U.S. dollar has traded higher for the past three sessions, pressuring corn and wheat prices on Tuesday.
• The corn market stays supported by yield variability. With information limited, yield reports have supported the market regarding the size of the corn crop. The impact of late dry weather and disease pressure is still unknown in the corn market.
• The talk that the government shutdown could see resolution this week could be either positive or negative to the corn market. The start of flowing government information will shed light on harvest progress and demand for the corn market, which has been missing since the shutdown began.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day slightly lower in quiet trade amid mixed comments by President Trump regarding a meeting with China’s Xi. November soybeans lost 1 cent to $10.30-3/4, while March lost 1-1/4 cents to $10.62-3/4. December soybean meal gained $1.90 to $286.90 and December soybean oil lost 0.66 cents to 50.65 cents despite small gains in crude.
• This week there has been a significant amount of talk by the administration of getting a trade deal ironed out with China. Yesterday, President Trump said they would attempt to close a deal by November 1 or risk increasing tariffs on Chinese goods, but today he said that the meeting with President Xi may not happen.
• The U.S. soybean harvest is estimated by Bloomberg polls to be 74% complete with a range between 61-80%. This would compare to last week’s survey guess of 60% and would compare to 81% from the USDA at this time a year ago.
• Yesterday’s export inspections saw soybean inspections at 1,474k tons which compares to 1,017k last week and 2,550k tons a year ago at this time. Export inspections are down 42.2% from a year ago. Top destinations were Mexico, Bangladesh, and Pakistan.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower across all three classes, pressured by the lower corn and soybean trade, a rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index, and a lower close for MATIF wheat futures. December Chi lost 4-1/2 cents to 500-1/4, KC was down 5 cents at 485, and MIAX finished the session 3-3/4 cents lower at 544-3/4.
• IKAR has once again increased their estimate of Russian wheat production, this time by 0.5 mmt to 88 mmt. The last USDA estimate in September had the crop pegged at 85 mmt.
• According to their agriculture ministry, Ukraine’s winter wheat crop is 72% planted. And despite the lack of data due to the government shutdown, U.S. winter wheat is believed to be being planted at a similar pace. A poll from Reuters suggests that U.S. plantings are 75% complete, while a Bloomberg survey indicates the crop is 76% planted.
• Over the past week, it was warm and mostly dry across Argentina. Over the next five days, above-normal temperatures are expected in central and northern regions, before cooler temperatures arrive next week. Additionally, above-normal rainfall is expected in the Pampas and northeast region. If the moisture persists, it could cause some concerns for the growth and quality of the wheat crop.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures gave back most of yesterday’s gains and some due to a drop in cheese. December futures gave back all 22 cents gained yesterday to close at $16.51.
• Spot cheese fell 1.375 cents to close at $1.77/lb. Whey prices continue to climb, reaching its highest level since January at $0.67/lb.
• Class IV milk futures failed to find any positive momentum on the day. December through June contracts posted double-digit losses.
• Spot butter was unchanged from Monday at $1.58/lb while powder futures tacked on half a cent to close at $1.1150/lb.
• Today’s Global Dairy Trade auction event showed cheese declining 1.1% to $2.20/lb and butter falling 2.7% to $3.02/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg