TFM Morning Update 10-23-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher this morning following yesterday’s gains and are now trading at the very top of the recent trading range. December futures are up 1-1/2 cents to $4.24-1/2 and March is up 2 cents to $4.37-3/4.
U.S. corn harvest is estimated to be 60%–70% complete, though rains this week may slow progress. Basis levels around the country remain firm for harvest time, an encouraging sign of underlying demand.
Bloomberg estimates for the export sales report for the week ending October 16 that is postponed, see corn sales in a range between 800k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 1,275k tons which would compare to 4,184k tons a year ago.

Soybean futures are higher this morning following mixed prices yesterday where front months were higher and deferred lower. November soybeans are up 3-3/4 cents to $10.38-1/2 and March is up 5-1/4 cents to $10.68-1/4. December soybean meal is down $0.70 to $289.30 and December bean oil is up 0.67 cents to 50.74 cents.
President Trump said he expects to reach a deal with China during the meeting with Xi on trade, soybeans, and potentially nuclear arms. This comes after a lot of waffling back and forth this week on whether or not a meeting would take place.
Bloomberg estimates for the postponed export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 700k and 2,000k tons with an average guess of 1,200k tons. This would compare to 2,088k last year.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with December Chicago wheat up 1-1/2 cents to $5.05-1/4, KC wheat is up 3-1/4 cents to $4.91-3/4, and Minn wheat is up 1-3/4 cents to $5.49-1/2.
It has been difficult to find supportive news for the wheat complex, but competitively priced U.S. offerings have kept export inspections running 20% ahead of last year’s pace as of Monday’s data.
Bloomberg estimates see export sales for wheat for the week ending October 16 between 350k and 750k tons with an average guess of 563k tons. This would compare to 533k a year ago.

Amanda Brill