CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite the friendly trade negotiations with China, corn futures failed to push through resistance, and a weak wheat market limited the corn market on Thursday. December corn slipped 3 3/4 cents to 430 1/4, while March lost 3 cents to 443 3/4.
• December corn futures tested the 200-day moving average at 437 and failed to push through, triggering selling and some long liquidation. Bearish technical action on Thursday may lead to additional selling pressure into Friday’s session.
• The U.S. and China appear close to reaching a trade agreement, and the prospect of improved Chinese demand supported the soybean market. Strength in soybeans may have helped limit selling pressure in corn during the session.
• With the USDA still closed due to the government shutdown, the weekly Corn Export Sales report was not released. Analysts expected new sales to range from 600,000MT to 1.6 MMT. The 5-year average for the week is 1.376 MMT.
• Corn harvest is moving into its final stages, which may be prompting some cash sales of remaining bushels. Corn spreads were actively bearish during the session, with December futures giving ground to the deferred months.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher after an extremely volatile day that saw the trading range for November at 44 cents, with the low at $10.57 and high at $11.01. President Trump met with Chinese President Xi last night and achieved a breakthrough, with China committing to resume large soybean purchases.
• November soybeans have gained 71-3/4 cents between this week and last, and today gained 11 cents to $10.91-1/4 while March gained 10-1/2 cents to $11.15-3/4. December soybean meal gained $6.90 to $315.60, and December soybean oil lost 0.51 cents to 49.65 cents
• President Trump and Xi came to some good agreements regarding trade last night, with China agreeing to buy 12 mmt of soybeans this season and a minimum of 12 mmt per year for the next 3 years. Each country has lowered tariffs on the other, and the trade truce has been extended for a year.
• In Brazil, soybean crushing is expected to hit a record high of 177 mmt for 25/26 according to Rabobank, which would be up 3% year to year. Brazilian planted soybean area is estimated at 48.8 million hectares, which would be up 2% from the previous year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower across all three classes. December Chi lost 8 cents to 524-1/4, KC was down 9-3/4 at 513, and MIAX closed 10 lower at 505-1/2. It was a volatile session for the grain markets, particularly soybeans, following last night’s meeting between President Trump and President Xi. Wheat appears to have little upside for now, as short covering may be mostly complete and there’s a lack of fresh bullish news. Adding to the pressure, Fed Chairman Powell indicated that interest rates may not be cut in December, boosting the U.S. dollar and weighing further on wheat prices.
• Ukraine’s winter wheat exports for the 25/26 season have reached 6.15 mmt as of October 29, but that is down 20% year over year. Furthermore, their winter wheat planting is said to be 82% complete with 3.86 million hectares sown so far. This falls below last year’s 4.1 million hectares planted at this time.
• A Bloomberg analyst survey suggests that U.S. wheat export sales may have reached 613,000 mt, which would be up from the 411,000 figure a year ago. The estimates, however, ranged between 350-900 thousand mt.
• A dry period is expected across the Pampas region of Argentina – this should be beneficial to the late developing wheat crop, given that there has been recent widespread rain and perhaps a surplus of moisture. In related news, LSEG weather research suggests that a weak La Niña weather pattern is developing. This could bring warm and dry conditions to the Pampas in the December-February timeframe.
• Russian wheat FOB export values are said to be around $231/mt. This is around the equivalent of 20 cents/bu below U.S. HRW wheat at the Gulf. Argentina wheat offers are also said to be cheaper than those of the U.S.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were mixed again today with November posting the largest move by losing 17 cents, settling at $17.66.
• Spot cheese was unchanged at $1.8225/lb today on no loads traded, entering Friday up 4.8750 cents on the week. Whey was unchanged at $0.70/lb.
• The October Class IV closed a nickel higher and November was even on the day. However, the proceeding 9 months were lower, some by double digits.
• The Class IV spot trade was mixed with butter gaining 1.75 cents and powder falling 2.25 cents.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill