TFM Morning Update 11-04-2025

CORN

Corn futures have started Tuesday slightly lower. December futures have lost 3-1/4 cents to 431. March futures have slid 3 cents lower to 443-3/4.
Weekly export inspections for corn remain very strong. For the week ending October 30, U.S. exporters shipped 1.669 MMT (65.7 million bushels) of corn. The 2025/26 marketing year is off to its fastest shipping pace in 45 years, running 64% ahead of last year’s pace.
The U.S. Dollar Index has risen to retest the psychological level of 100. This level coincides with the index’s prior 3-month high. Additional strength in the U.S. dollar could dampen export strength.

Soybean futures have slipped lower to begin the day. January futures are trading 12 cents lower at 1122-1/4. March futures have lost 12-1/4 cents, trading at 1128.
Soybean futures eased after reaching a 16-month high on Monday, as traders await confirmation of additional Chinese purchases of U.S. cargoes following last week’s talks and the recent thaw in trade relations between the two countries.
Brazil’s soybean planting for the 2025-26 season reached 47% of the expected area as of last Thursday, up from 36% a week earlier but behind last year’s pace of 54%, according to agribusiness consultancy AgRural. The slower progress is attributed to irregular rainfall.

Wheat futures have started the day mixed. December Chicago wheat futures are 1 cent higher to 544-1/2. December Kansas City wheat is trading 1-1/4 cents higher to 530-1/2. MIAX wheat is unchanged, at 558.
Uncertainty over whether China is actively purchasing U.S. grain has been a key driver of recent price action, with futures fluctuating as sentiment shifts throughout the day. With the government shutdown ongoing, confirmation of any actual purchases remains difficult to obtain.
Black Sea agricultural consultancy SovEcon has raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports by 400,000 metric tons to 43.8 million metric tons. The revision reflects stronger demand from global wheat buyers amid lower prices.

Matthew Lucas