TFM Morning Update 11-05-2025

CORN

Corn futures have started the day slightly higher. December futures have gained 1/2 cent to trade at 432. March futures have risen 1 cent to 445-3/4.
StoneX estimates the 2025 U.S. corn yield at 186 bpa, up slightly from 185.9 bpa last month. The NASS Crop Production report is still expected to be released this month on November 14.
Brazil’s soybean planting has slowed and is now slightly behind last year’s pace due to dry weather. If the delay continues, it could also push back corn planting, potentially moving Brazil’s key corn crop outside optimal weather windows and negatively impacting yields.

Soybean futures are trading higher. January futures are trading 8 cents higher at 1129-1/2. March futures have gained 7-1/2 cents, trading at 1135-1/4.
China announced that it will suspend retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports following last week’s meeting between the two nations’ leaders, including the removal of duties on agricultural goods. However, imports of U.S. soybeans will still be subject to a 13% tariff.
StoneX lowered its U.S. soybean yield estimate to 53.6 bpa, down from 53.9 bpa last month, and slightly reduced its production estimate to 4.303 billion bushels from 4.326 billion. The firm also raised its forecast for Brazil’s new-crop soybean production to 178.9 million metric tons, up 0.1% from the previous projection and nearly in line with CONAB’s estimate.

Wheat futures have started the day lower. December Chicago wheat futures are 3/4 cent lower to 549-1/2. December Kansas City wheat is trading 1-1/2 cents lower to 535. MIAX wheat has lost 1 cent, now trading at 557.
A Bloomberg survey suggests that U.S. winter wheat planting may be 92% complete, ahead of last year’s 87% pace at this time. Additionally, crop conditions are expected to have improved by 2 percentage points to 52% good to excellent, compared to 41% a year ago.
Ukraine’s economy ministry estimates that winter crop planting is 90% complete, with 5.9 million hectares sown so far. Winter wheat accounts for 4.303 million hectares planted, representing 90.1% of the expected total area of 4.778 million hectares.

Matthew Lucas