TFM Midday Update 11-13-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher at midday, breaking above resistance at the 200-day moving average. December futures are up 3-½ cents to 438-¾. March futures are up 3-½ cents to 452-¾.
The USDA will release its November Crop Production and WASDE reports on Friday. Market expectations point to a slight reduction in corn yield to 184 bushels per acre, while carryout is projected to edge higher to 2.168 billion bushels. Traders will be watching closely for confirmation of the current trend — strong demand alongside a gradually shrinking crop.
Estimates for this week’s EIA report call for ethanol production to ease to 1.102 million barrels per day, with stockpiles seen slightly lower at 22.633 million barrels.
Analysts have increased their projections for Brazil’s upcoming corn crop, now estimating production at 143.56 MMT, up from 142.49 MMT in last month’s forecast.

Soybean futures are showing signs of strength at midday with January futures trading 13-½ cents higher to 1147-¼. March futures are trading 12-¾ cents higher to 1156-¾.
Soybeans have risen to their highest level in nearly 17 months, as traders await a U.S. crop report expected to trim yield forecasts and the resumption of export data for clues on Chinese buying.
Pre-report estimates for the WASDE suggest soybean yields will be lowered by 0.4 bpa from September to 53.1 bpa. U.S. ending stocks are expected to edge up slightly to 306 million bushels from 300 million last year, though this will depend on demand revisions. Global ending stocks are also projected to rise modestly.
Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop is now estimated at 179 mmt, up 1.4 mmt from October’s projection. The country’s corn crop outlook was also raised.

Wheat futures have followed corn and soybeans higher at midday. December Chicago wheat is up 1-½ cents to 537-½. December Kansas City wheat is up 2 cents to 527-½. MIAX wheat is up 5 cents to 575.
The pre-report estimate for U.S. 2025/26 wheat ending stocks is 862 million bushels, up from 844 million in September. Globally, wheat carryout is expected to rise to 262.6 million metric tons for 2024/25 and 266.1 mmt for 2025/26, up 0.2 and 2.0 mmt, respectively.
The International Grains Council estimates the 2025/26 global grain crop at a record 819 mmt, supported by rebounds in the EU and Russia, as well as larger harvests in the Americas.
Export shipments are accelerating from the Black Sea and Argentina, where the harvest is progressing and production is forecast near 22 mmt leading to competitive FOB offers that are undercutting previous levels.

Matthew Lucas