CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market finished with moderate to strong gains on Thursday as front-end futures pushed through key resistance points and triggered technical buying and stop orders over the market. December corn closed 6 ¼ higher to 441 ½, while March added 6 ¼ to 455 ½. This was the highest daily close on December corn since June 18.
• USDA is releasing the November Crop Production and WASDE report on Friday. Expectations are for the USDA to lower corn yield to 184 bu/acres but increase carryout slightly to 2.168 billion bushels. Corn market participants will be looking for trends in Friday’s report of demand staying strong, and the crop getting smaller.
• With the government open, the USDA announced that they will be releasing all daily export sale announcements ranging from October 1-November 13 at 11:00 CST on Friday in conjunction with the USDA WASDE report. The daily sales will give the market a trend on how demand has been during the shutdown and who those buyers were.
• USDA released a back-dated weekly export sales report on Thursday morning. For the week ending September 25, U.S. exporters sold 54.9 mb of corn on the export market. As of that date, U.S. export sales were 422 mb over last year. The USDA announced that they will be releasing two back-dated export sales reports until the information is caught up by December 29.
• Brazil Ag agency, CONAB, released their November production estimates of 138.84 MMT of corn, up from 138.60 MMT in October. Corn exports were unchanged at 46.5 MMT, but from 40 MMT last year.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher and broke out of recent resistance levels on little bullish news. November soybeans were up 11-1/2 cents to $11.32 and March soybeans were up 12-3/4 cents to $11.56-3/4. December soybean meal was up $7.40 to $328.40 and December soybean oil was down 0.37 cents to 50.25 cents.
• Overnight, it was reported that China surprisingly purchased a few cargoes of soybeans from Canada. So far, China has only made two small purchases of soybeans from the U.S. which are starting to feel performative. There are concerns that China has purchased the majority of their needs at this point.
• Estimates for the WASDE report see soybean yields down 0.4 bpa in September to 53.1 bpa, but ending stocks are expected to be slightly higher at 306 mb and world ending stocks are also seen slightly higher. The report may be slightly bearish, but the WASDE at this time of year tends to not be a huge market mover.
• CONAB updated its estimates for Brazilian soybean production for 25/26. Production is estimated at 177.6 mmt which would compare to 171.5 mmt last year. Exports are seen at 112.11 mmt, which would be up from last year, and ending stocks are seen at 13.60 mmt, which would also be up from 10.75 mmt last year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat finished the session quietly and on both sides of neutral, despite a sharp drop in the U.S. Dollar Index today. There may be varied feelings ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report; while the report is not expected to have as much impact on wheat as it might for corn and soybeans, there is perhaps some anticipation of increasing global wheat supply which would be negative to prices. December Chicago lost 1/4 cent, closing at 535-3/4, Kansas City was up 1/4 cent at 525-3/4, and MIAX was unchanged at 569-3/4.
• In an update from CONAB, their estimate of Brazilian wheat production was kept steady at 7.7 mmt, which is slightly higher than the last USDA projection of 7.5 mmt. Additionally, the Rosario Grain Exchange increased their Argentine wheat production estimate by 1.5 mmt to 24.5 mmt. If realized, this would be a new record compared to the USDA at 19.5 mmt.
• Argentina’s wheat export values remain the world’s cheapest on a FOB basis, with their harvest reported at 15% complete. Additionally, Russian wheat offers are also said to be below that of U.S. HRW wheat. This competition in the global marketplace may keep pressure on US futures. Nevertheless, total U.S. wheat export inspections are up 19% versus last year, compared with the USDA’s forecast of only up 10%.
• Saudi Arabia is said to be looking to purchase up to 650,000 mt of milling wheat. In other tender news, Tunisa is said to have purchased 125,000 mt of soft wheat and 100,000 mt of durum wheat at $258/mt and $323/mt respectively (on a CNF basis). Furthermore, Indonesia and Nigeria may be looking to purchase wheat too.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• After 43 days, the government shutdown has come to a close. We anticipate a return to normal USDA activity in the coming weeks.
• Class III futures were a mixed bag today with December settling up 10 cents at $16.72. Spot cheese and whey were both unchanged.
• Class IV futures were higher into mid-2026 with December popping back to close at $14.00.
• Spot butter jumped 5.25 cents to finish at $1.5525/lb while powder was up 1.50 cent to settle at $1.1725/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty