TFM Morning Update 11-17-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly higher this morning. December futures are 3/4 cent higher to 431. March futures have gained 1 cent to 445.
On Friday, the USDA trimmed the national corn yield estimate to 186 bushels per acre, a 0.7-bushel drop from September but still above the trade’s 185-bushel projection. The stronger-than-expected yield lifted total production to 16.752 billion bushels, setting a new record and exceeding the previous 2023 peak by nearly 1.5 billion bushels.
Price action may remain under pressure from technical selling and potential spillover weakness from other grains this week due to the bearish report. However, a softer corn market could help improve U.S. export competitiveness and attract additional demand.

Soybean futures are trading higher to begin the week. January futures are trading 10-3/4 cents higher to 1135-1/4. March futures are trading 9-1/2 cents higher to 1145-1/2..
Friday’s WASDE report trimmed U.S. soybean yield to 53.1 bpa, down from 53.5 in September, leading to a reduction in total production. Ending stocks declined to 290 mb from 300 mb, but a 50 mb cut to export demand offset the supportive supply adjustments, leaving the report with a generally bearish tone. Global ending stocks edged up to 124.21 mmt compared to 123.99 mmt previously.
The market will continue seeking signs of Chinese buying following their pledge to purchase 12 mmt of U.S. soybeans before year-end. Confirmed sales currently remain under 1 mmt, creating skepticism that the target will be met.

All three wheat classes are higher this morning with Chicago leading the wheat complex. December Chicago wheat is up 4 cents to 531-1/4, Kansas City wheat is up 3-1/2 cents to 518-3/4, and Minn wheat is up 1 cent to $5.70.
Friday’s WASDE report increased the U.S. 2025/26 wheat carryout to 901 mb, up from 844 mb in September. Globally, 2024/25 ending stocks were reduced to 261.4 mmt, while 2025/26 stocks were raised by 7.3 mmt to 271.4 mmt, contributing to a more bearish overall outlook.
USDA left U.S. wheat exports unchanged at 900 mb and kept production steady at 1.985 bb. Production estimates were raised for Argentina, Australia, Russia, Canada, and the EU. World wheat production is now projected at 828.89 mmt, up from 816.20 mmt in September.

Matthew Lucas