TFM Midday Update 11-17-2025

CORN

Corn futures are higher at midday, December corn +4¢ to 434 July corn +3¢ to 461
Friday’s WASDE lowered U.S. yield to 186 bpa (less than expected), leaving production at 16.7 billion bushels — roughly 200 million bushels above pre-report estimates.
December futures closed below the 200-day moving average last week but are holding the 20-day average today. Next support near $4.20.

Soybean futures are sharply higher at midday, erasing nearly all of Friday’s losses. January futures up 22¢ to 1146-1/2
Rumors are circulating to start the week that China has booked more U.S. soybeans, traders will watch for daily flash sales to be reported later this week.
In Friday’s release of backlogged flash sales showed China bought only 12 mb during the shutdown. Officials still say China is committed to 440 mb total by year-end.
Soybean planting in Brazil was reported to be 71% complete as of late last week, this compares to 80% complete in this same week last year.

Wheat futures are higher to start the week as prices have returned to pre-WASDE report levels. December Chicago wheat is currently +14c at 541. December KC wheat is currently up 13 cents at 528-1/4 while December Spring wheat is currently up 8 cents at 573.
Friday’s WASDE was bearish overall: U.S. and global ending stocks rose above pre-report estimates. World wheat ending stocks jumped 7.4 million metric tons to 271.4 million — the first year-over-year increase since 2019/20.
Argentina holds the world’s cheapest wheat origin at ~$210 FOB, with harvest underway for a projected large crop (22 million metric tons per local estimates). This will likely weigh on U.S. wheat exports in the weeks to come.

Keegan Madigan